Mea maxima culpa

We've slashed prices on everything at the end of the month! Get a gently-worn 2004 blog at a discount price before the new 2005 model rolls in! This blog is worth $1.15 per share on the open market! No serious offer will be refused! Act now and you can have my 7th place rotisserie team thrown in as an extra bonus! I'll send you a fabulous set of steak knives! You can have the Omar Moreno commemorative statue that my father just gave me! The 'fro sculpt would make Oscar Gamble green with envy!

And if you act right now, Mr. Anthony Darrell Womack, I will even throw in an apology. Because after watching Braves SS Rafael Furcal misplay two more grounders (pushing his error total for the season to 18!), I know understand that I willfully underestimated what you've done for the Cardinals this season. I know that shortstop is a much harder position defensively (Jack Wilson, who consistently makes amazing plays, has 10 errors this year), but your 8 errors on the season isn't terrible. All that shit I said about hyperbole when I dissected that AP Wire profile line-by-line? I was straight up hating. And I clearly owe you the aforementioned Omar Moreno statue, because I just realized the strangest thing: you and he are exactly the same player.

We believe

Mr. Clutch Rob Mackowiak shined as the Pirates rolled to a 8-4 victory over the Braves tonight, proof that his wife doesn't need to be delivering babies for him to come up big at the plate. Still, Atlanta catcher Johnny Estrada -- who was his usual monster self in the batting box -- ought to have been voted the game's #1 star for a series of teeth-clenching gaffes that sealed the victory for the Pirates. The seventh inning, in particular, was one of the strangest baseball things I've ever had the opportunity to see in person:

Paul Byrd gives up two singles to Bobby Hill and Abraham Nunez and gets yanked in favor of reliever Kevin Gryboski. Kendall gets on base with a clean single. Jack Wilson comes up next with a dismal grounder, but SS Rafael Furcal bungles the play (and gets charged with the inning's first error) as Hill scores and the bases are loaded. Up next: Rob Mackowiak. A chorus of fans chanting "grand slam! grand slam!," praying for some of his patented late-inning heroics. And then Mackowiak drives a fastball to left field. It's on the warning track! It could be his third slam of the season! But...it drops down for what looks like a double. Nunez scores, Kendall scores. Then Wilson slides across the plate and Mackowiak moves to third while Estrada mishandles the relay throw, and then -- miraculously -- the ball pops out of Estrada's hands towards the Pirates' dugout and Mackowiak scores.

Final damage: Estrada gets charged with one error (he also allows a run to score on a passed ball later in the 8th) and Mackowiak gets three rbi with his not-really-an-inside-the-park-home-run-but-too-strange-to-be-an-average-double trip to the plate. To quote Family Guy Peter Griffin: "It was freakin' sweet." I should also mention that the Pirates are now 48-50 for the season, hovering around the marks of "wild-card contenders" like Houston, the Mets and the Marlins. All this after falling to 15 games under .500 just a month ago. July has totally been Pittsburgh's bitch. 

Hate the players, love the game

Hmm. Three posts that reference the Astros, Cubs and the Cardinals all in a row, and my Pirates bias has been exercised more than I'd care to admit. I'm in a NL Central kinda mood with a trip to  the eighth wonder of the world in my near future. Should I tune into WKRP and try to make a clean sweep? Nah...wouldn't want to spill a precious drop of virtual ink on the Big Red Boredom Machine.

In the meantime, meet my new favorite writer. So: working for peanuts or selling peanuts for work?

Slow news day

You may have missed it yesterday, sandwiched in between workmanlike headlines that read "Ruth's Historic Bat on Display in Cleveland" [about an upcoming auction of one of the Babe's bats] and "Big Tex: Not an All-Star, but huge for the Rangers," [about Mark Texiera's fine season] but occasionally something interesting seeps through the ESPN news wire that doesn't get any play on the front page of the site. In this case, I'm thinking about this AP News Wire softball, which discusses how valuable free agent pick-up Tony Womack has been to the Cardinals this season.

The unattributed author goes to great lengths to rationalize and explain -- and at times, offer apologies for -- Womack's stats this season. This isn't a criticism of Womack per se; in truth, he's been a lucky pick-up, a bargain, and probably LaRussa's best option in the lead-off slot. But the language in the piece is a little loaded:

Despite a 2-for-26 slump since the All-Star break, he is batting .299 with a slap stroke and a patient eye that has produced an on-base percentage of .351.
 
Uh oh. Is Womack falling apart? Like a lot of speedy guys, he always catches fire before the All-Star break and trails off after. The OBP is wayyyyy better than career average (and better than a lot of the guys who bat behind him), but I'd be nervous if the Cardinals' ultimate fate was tied into Womack's, ahem, patient eye.

Womack got off to a blazing start with three steals in the opener and seven by April 20. He said his modest count since is irrelevant, blaming the decline on pitchers' quicker moves to the plate.

Ok, well, Womack has only had 7 steals in the last three months. No one on the Cards is stealing all that much -- it's not the game they're playing now, though LaRussa could revert to a traditional hit-and-run if he chose. His success rate is around .800, which is fine, but "quicker moves to the plate"? That's strange. Womack is on pace for 24 steals, which is consistent with the numbers he put up in his last two seasons with Arizona, and what he might've amassed in a full-time role last season. The guy's also 34, which is past prime for a break-out season, suggesting his fastest days are behind him.

Womack said [he's] getting stronger "by the week" and he's determined not to let it affect his game, even though he's bounced a lot of double-play relays to first.
 
Defense is a concern, which is why the Pirates dumped him on Arizona for next to nothing, and why Womack found himself in three unis last season. Womack's fielding percentage has always been below league average, and he has 8 errors on the season -- not so good. I'm also willing to bet that some of Albert Pujols' 7 errors relate to Womack's misplays in the field.

Cardinals fans seem to have eased off of Womack's case since the start of the season, because Womack has played a huge role in keep the House of Cards together. Still, he's a part-time player exceeding expectations in a full-time role. I see "Cecil Espy," while Tony LaRussa sees "The ESPYs." Dusty Baker, take note: he could've been yours. Watch out for falling concrete.

New boss = same as old boss

The folks in Chicago are almost ready to give up on the Cubs; Mark Prior's protracted -- and very mysterious -- arm fatigue is a (no pun intended) sore point, and no one on the team seems to be able to stay healthy for long. Barring an acquisition of Nomar Garciaparra or, more likely, Orlando Cabrera (rumored, but he's been awful this season) to shore up the middle infield, it's not looking like the Cubbies will have a repeat of last season's excitement. Oh, the ballpark is still crowded as hell and tensions run high whenever the Cardinals are in town, but as of this writing, they're 10 games behind St. Louis in the enigmatic NL Central, playing a game of one steps forward, one step back while sandwiched between surprise teams Milwaukee and Cincinnati. And maybe it's just the native Pittsburgher in me talking here, but the Bucs have been the best team in the NL Central in the month of July and, well, the Cubs are the only team in the division who don't look like they're trying.

Over on the other side of the city, just south of Chinatown and west of Mayor Daley's palatal manor, the city's red-headed stepchildren the White Sox are in the midst of a pennant race. The AL Central's pretty mediocre, too: here in the Midwest, we don't get excited about anything too easily. It's frustrating pinning your allegiances on the Sox sometimes; no one expects the Cubs to do anything in this lifetime as long as the ghost goat is reinforcing the curse and braying behind the ivy. But the Sox -- well, they've had three 1st place finishes since 1993 (compared to the Cubs only one last year) and -- though looks can be deceiving -- have finished in second place six other times. So the talent has always been there to, at least, tease.

This year, though, it's a great pennant race -- and I'd implore anyone reading this in Chicago to forget about the Scrubs (they also have beer in U.S. Cellular Field) and throw support to the White Stockings. They need it, and they're actually in a dog fight with Minnesota for the lead.  As of the current writing, the Twins are 0.5 games up in the standings; no doubt, next week's Mon-Tue-Wed series in Chi will have a leveling effect.  Still, some problems: Magglio Ordonez is still out and Big Frank's down for two months with a foot injury -- that's the two biggest guns out of the line-up and you've got problems. Chicago's 9-9 since acquiring Freddy Garcia (who's 2-1 with a 3.38 era for July so far), too -- an indicator that they've got the pitching for the playoffs, but need a hitting boost to float through August and September.

To that end, Kenny Williams recently dipped into his endless bag of (generally mediocre) pitching prospects and reacquired gloomy gus Carl Everett (who hasn't reacquired his stroke) for some dude named Gary Majewski and the tallest player in major league history, Jon Rauch. Montreal needed to clear Everett's $7.5 mil/ 2 yr contract off the books, and all of the Sox players seem to be excited about the acquisition -- but what to realistically think about the team's chances from here on out? Three factors seem to be in Chicago's favor: first, Minnesota has a surplus of talent to reconfigure the team with trades, but the front office has zero balls. Next, the White Sox have the best W-L record in their division (16-8 to Minnesota's 25-22). And the other intangible? Scheduling.

ESPN's Buster Olney on the White Sox: "Twenty-six of their last 74 games are against sub-.500 teams, and eight of their last 11 games are against the Royals -- a chance for a late-season feast."

ESPN's Buster Olney on the Twins: "They have 35 games left against teams with records of .500 or better, second most in AL, and fewest home games remaining among AL contenders."

I love me some Minnesota, too. Ron Gardenhire is the most underrated manager in MLB, and the team has an impressive talent pipeline from the minors. Still, this year it's the first round of the playoffs for the Sox. I think. I hope.  Crack open the magic Old Style and make it happen, Ozzie.

Smackdown!
 
Jimmy Williams became the second MLB manager to get the ax this season, after Arizona skipper Bob Brenly got the boot earlier in July. In both cases, additional changes were made to support and justify the moves: pitching coach Chuck Kniffin and bench coach Robin Yount (who resigned out of loyalty) joined Brenly on his extended vacation, while the Astros gave pitching coach Burt Hooton and hitting coach Harry Spilman their walking papers, too. It's a step up from the drastic purge last year, when 6 guys faced the firing squad before the All-Star break -- leading to Jack McKeon's appointment and magnificent finish with the Marlins...and not a whole lot else.  Unsatisfactory records prompted the Williams and Brenly moves, though I think impatience and unreasonable expectations had a lot more to do with it than managerial incompetence.
 
In the case of Brenly, he compiled a 303-262 record (and tell me that doesn't bear an eerie resemblance to knuckleballer Phil Niekro's career numbers) in 3 1/2 seasons with the Diamondbacks, including a World Series victory in 2001 and a playoff run in 2002. Brenly didn't do much in 2003 with a 3rd place finish and seemed to get called on the carpet for a series of questionable calls, but success spoils you, doesn't it? Richie Sexson's season-ending injury (after the D-backs traded a handful of major-league level players to Milwaukee) really signaled the death knell for Brenly: the team just couldn't put it together this year and puttered to a 29-50 record at the time of his dismissal. Really quite bad. And managers almost never have the luxury of working through a slump. Well, actually, there is an exception to that rule -- but we'll get there in a second.
 
In the case of Williams, he replaced Larry Dierker, whose Houston teams made the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons as manager and got dumped in a year (2001) the team went 93-69, simply because he couldn't light a fire under his players' asses to get beyond the first round of the playoffs. Williams was not the guy to replace Dierker, especially if the agenda in Houston was to go out and grab the jewel-crusted World Series ring. His Toronto (1986-88) and Boston (1997-2001) put together respectable enough records, but never made it past 2nd place in their respective divisions. Except, of course, when Williams was fired mid-season in 1989 and Cito Gaston engineered a turn-around and top finish for the Jays. Williams isn't the guy to take you to the playoffs -- he's the guy you fire to motivate the players to get there. 
 
Back to the exception to the rule -- which I like to call the Phil Garner Rule: managers will have the luxury of working through a slump if there is an awareness that they don't have the resources to succeed.  Garner, a universally well-liked guy, went 563 -617 in eight seasons with the Brewers between 1992-1999, with only one season (his first) above .500. Add two more in Detroit in 2000 and 2001 when -- this is very important, so I'm going to italicize it -- the teams had no reasonable expectation of contending and Garner cruised to 3rd and 4th place finishes. I love Lloyd McClendon so much that his name's the subject of this blog, but do you ever wonder why he's been allowed to continue to manage the Pirates this long? The Phil Garner Rule, of course. The same rule has just been invoked by Arizona; Brenly's replacement Al Pedrique is 2-9 since taking over the job and it would take a minor miracle for the Diamondbacks not to punt on the season entirely and move into rapid rebuilding mode. At the very least, Randy Johnson and Steve Finley will be gone -- so we know Pedrique's job will be safe for awhile.
 
Oddly enough, the Phil Garner Rule even applies to the hiring of Phil Garner as the interim manager in Houston -- even though there's an emphasis on winning NOW, a ton of older players on 1 year contracts on the team and Drayton McLane rented Carlos Beltran expressly for a pennant drive.  See, if Garner can't lead the slumping Astros to the playoffs, it's not his fault. He won't be back as the Astros manager, but it certainly won't be his fault. And if he puts it all together and kicks the Astros in the high gear, he's a light version of Jack McKeon; the media is beating the "Garner was saddled with bad teams before, lets see what he can do with talent" drum an uncomfortable amount. Not sure what's up in Houston; between the Killer Bs -- Biggio, Beltran, Bagwell and Berkman -- and the Clemens/Miller/Pettite/Oswalt rotation, they should be able to stomp on the competition.  I think people certainly want Garner to succeed -- we feel sorry for his Milwaukee-Detroit experiences because he's a likeable guy and a player's manager (as is Pedrique, who was well loved in AAA Tuscon). And maybe, if Prior's elbow doesn't heal and Milwaukee and Cincy stop surprising and the Cardinals stop snorting fancy pixie dust to get that high in the standings, Phil Garner might even be an exception to his own rule.

Non-Thinking Fellers Union Local #282
 
Dear Bob, your greatness is undeniable, but would you please take a cue from Dick Cheney and kindly shut the fuck up? 

Hey pervert!

Yes, you. As in: The one who came to this site after doing a web search for "wife of MLB player with tits." Don't you know it's wrong to objectify women based solely on their physical attributes? Anyway, since I can't finger the culprit by doing a web search for "random time-waster with limp penis," I might as well give you what you want. You might be talking about Kris Benson's wife, a model who's been in the news lately for making the Yankees front office wary of trading for her husband because of fears that she'll continue to discuss her wonderful sex life (and that of other players' wives) on the radio. But, nah, you're dirty. You're looking for images to fill out your virtual stroke book. You, my callous reader, hunger for a shot of Jose Lima's wife, who was later cropped out of this image on MLB's website after a spike in network traffic. There. And wipe the keyboard down when you're done, ok, pal?

And it don't stop...

One Man Band takes a break from studying for the bar exam to kick out his AL and NL All-Star Roster predictions. Scroll down to the 7/3 and 7/4 posts and see how he did. Damn well, I think -- he certainly got into a Joe Torre mindset by nailing all the Yankees and fingering all the (at that point) probable exclusions. I admire this, because I'm terrible at these kinds of predictions; I'm pretty psyched to read his take on the All-Star game. Pretty soon, his word will be legal, you know.

ESPN Classic is offering a nice warm-up for the upcoming festivities with this list of All-Star contests from 1933-2003. I know I'm not being fair towards expansion and all that, but it strikes me that things have become very bloated with the mid-season classic in the modern era. The rosters have practically doubled since the game's inception. Teams of 18 squared off in 1933, while teams of 34 duked it out last year. Even with the surplus of players, everyone didn't make it into the game in 2002, the year of the infamous overtime tie in Miller Park.

For more comprehensive coverage, definitely check out what's cookin' on mlb.com. Rosters are there, as well as box scores for every contest, mini-recaps, detailed information on injury replacements, and all manner of assorted esoterica-- like this list of all the All-Star rookie starters, as well as the answer to the following question: how many countries have been represented in the All-Star game? Hint: it's more than you'd think (answer posted in comments section).

I have two requests for this year's game. First, please please please let the NL All-Stars win. Yet another AL victory does nothing to promote the world outside of the Yankess and Red Sox, and the NL has the pitching this year to do it. Next, please consider a return to using pitching more judiciously. No more 2 inning starts followed by seven tense innings of sloppy relief. Both sides got through with three pitchers pitching 3 innings each way back in '33. All the NL needs is Clemens, Schmidt and Johnson to throw heat. I'm not holding my breath for either; Christmas (i.e. how everyone else spells "Hanukkah") doesn't come in July.

Now, not never

Bobby Abreu finally made it to the All-Star Game in his ninth season as internet voting closed on the final two All-Star selections this evening. 2 million people wanted to see Abreu represent the NL for the first time in his career, and there's at least 2 million reasons why Abreu's the right choice. Hell, I voted for Abreu six times, one for every year he's been snubbed so far -- though I did have some misgivings. Aramis Ramirez, currently batting .326 with 15hr and 56rbi, might've been a strong choice for this year, too; his contributions to the Cubs' offense this year (Dusty Baker has called him the "cornerstone" of the club) are undeniable, and he murdered the ball during the team's pennant run last year. In a just world, he would have made the roster, too (he was neck-and-neck with Abreu in voting yesterday). But in a just world, Barry Larkin wouldn't have been voted in as the starting shortstop this year and Abreu would've gotten his propers long ago.

So back to the man of the hour. Beginning in 1998, when Abreu established himself as a starter in his first season with the Phillies, any of his seasons could've been considered All-Star worthy. He's hit at a .300 clip or better in 5 of those 6 seasons, and has never missed more than 11 games in any of those seasons. In 2001, when his average dipped to .289, he played in all 162 games of the season and ranked top-10 in runs, walks, stolen bases, extra base hits, doubles and sacrifice flies. He got on base less (the only time his OBP has dipped below .400), but compensated with better power numbers.

Before today, Bobby Abreu had the distinction of being the best baseball player never to be included on an All-Star roster. I'm sure he's happy to not have that albatross hanging around his neck anymore. But despite his monstrous stats, Abreu also has the misfortune of being a mercurial player. He always finishes strong at the end of the season, but has a reputation for being frustratingly streaky. A choker. A difficult presence on the field. Undisciplined. Every year, there's a report out of Philly that proclaims that the fans are "tiring of his slack attitude." Sure, the Philly fans give their stars no quarter -- a friend of mine took issue with Scott Rolen in 2001 (in the midst of a fine season) for "only hitting home runs when it doesn't count." Pat Burrell's gotta be happy that he's not the locus of frustrations this year. The only guy who gets it worse than Larry Bowa year in, year out is Abreu. He isa slow starter, but so is Jim Thome.

In the end, it's not sentiment that prevails with the Abreu selection. He's in the midst of his greatest campaign yet with a .301 average, 17hr and 57rbi -- putting him on pace to eclipse previous highs for home runs and driving runs in. His OPS is the highest it has ever been (1.010 -- compare to Moises Alou's .850 this season) and he's getting on base at a torrid pace, suggesting he'll trump his highest runs scored total, as well. Even more importantly, he's 17-for-18 in stolen base attempts. Abreu is lighting on the base paths, but he also gets thrown out a lot and his efficiency rate in that department has traditionally hovered between 50-75%. But he's getting on and staying on...and now he's in. And to all the fans in Houston who stuffed the ballot box to make this happen, the check's in the mail.

Simply the best/ Simplement le meilleur

Tim Kurkjian weighed in with his thoughts on Eric Gagne's save streak last week and I couldn't have disagreed more. I was with Kurkjian when he was comparing and contrasting with Orel Hershiser's herculean 59 consecutive scoreless inning streak in '88, but got soured on the piece when he drew Joe DiMaggio and Cal Ripken's respective streaks into it. Not valid as comparison points, and I don't put much stock in his assertion (seconded by As GM Billy Beane -- sort of) that Gagne's numbers were vastly inflated by the luxury of entering a game with a runner on base in only 17 of 84 opportunities. And the problematic and hotly-contested modern definition of the save shouldn't take anything away from Gagne's accomplishments. I guess Kurkijan was taking a preemptive strike against the hype accompanying the streak, though I do think it's up there with the greatest pitching feats of all time. That's all said and done now, as Kurkjian jinxed the streak with his poopy-pants mojo and Gagne blew his first save in almost two years in a 6-5 loss to the struggling Diamondbacks. Jayson Stark puts things into proper focus in this week's edition of his "Useless Info" column (dedicated entirely to Gagne), simply by showing that everyone else in the league combined to blow 969 saves during the same interval. Stark also reports that Gagne "allowed one hit or none in 92 percent of his saves (77 of 84) -- and gave up zero hits in an amazing 60 percent of them (50 of 84)." End of story. Thank you for setting it right, ESPN.

***

Tim Kurkjian a pesé dedans avec ses pensées sur Eric Gagne's économiser la strie la semaine dernière et je ne pourrais pas être en désaccord davantage. J'étais avec Kurkjian quand il était rivalisant et contrastant avec la strie scoreless consécutive du tour de batte de Orel Hershiser's 59 herculéens dans '88, mais devenu aigri sur le morceau quand il a dessiné les stries respectives de Joe DiMaggio et de calorie Ripken's dans lui. L'invalide comme points de comparaison, et je ne crois pas son affirmation(secondée près comme Dodgers GM Billy Beane -- peut-être) que ce Gagne's des nombres ont été énormément gonflés par le luxe d'écrire un jeu avec un coureur sur la base dans seulement 17 de 84 occasions. Et la définition moderne problématique et chaud-contestée de l'économiser ne devrait prendre rien loin des accomplissements de Gagne's. Je devine que Kurkijan prenait une grève de préemption contre l'exagération accompagnant la strie, bien que j'imagine it's là avec les plus grands exploits de tangage de toute l'heure. C'est tout dit et fait maintenant, car Kurkjian jinxed la strie avec son poopy-pantalon mojo et Gagne a soufflé son premier économiser en presque deux ansdans une perte 6-5 à la lutte Diamondbacks. Jayson Stark rigide met des choses dans le foyer approprié en cette édition de week's de son "Information Inutile" colonne (consacrée entièrement à Gagne), simplement en prouvant que chacun autrement dans la ligue combinée pour souffler 969 économise pendant le même intervalle. Rigide également rapporte que Gagne "a laissé un frappé ou absent en 92 pour cent à lui économise (77 de 84) -- et a donné vers le haut les coups zéro en 60 pour cent stupéfiant d'eux (50 de 84)." Fin d'histoire. Merci de la placer la droite, ESPN.

Odalis or Oliver?

Oliver Perez pitched a hell of a game tonight, a 7 inning, 11 strikeout gem, as the Pirates crushed the surging Brewers 8-1 (knocking Doug Davis, the subject of an earlier post, out after 4 innings). Like JT scanning the papers for news of Britney's impending nuptials, I'm lovin' it. I consider myself to be firmly on the bandwagon after his awesome first half, though I'm too cynical to muster the kind of enthusiasm Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sportswriter Ron Cook displays in this hyperbolic column where he namechecks Bonds, Clemente, Kiner, Stargell and Dave Parker and appears all but ready to retire the young lefty's #48 jersey. His stats haven't set off the four-alarm mania surrounding Dontrelle Willis yet; I'd put the hype somewhere around the level that Odalis Perez started getting in his third season.

And maybe that's not such a bad reference point. At this point in the season, Oliver's ERA, WHIP and BAA (Batting Average Against) are pretty much interchangeable with the numbers for LA starter Odalis. Oliver has a good 40 lbs on his rival, while Odalis has a lankier frame reminiscent of Pedro Martinez. Oliver is having a career year in his 4th season; Odalis was enjoying a good start to his 7th season before a trip to the DL last week. Here's a quiz to gauge your knowledge of the 6'0" lefties. (Answers will be posted in the comments section)

1. Faster fastball?
2. Throws a slider?
3. Best career ERA and WHIP marks?
4. Best career BAA mark?
5. Most complete games since 2003?
6. Career fielding percentage better than league average?
7. Most holds?
8. Lowest career mark in Pitches per Game Started?
9. Highest career batting average?
10. Highest career OBP?

Bonus: Most innings pitched as a rookie?