Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Freakonomics

I haven't looked over the archive of posts from last December-January, but this is normally the time of year where I rant uncontrollably about the fallout from the Winter Meetings. Part of the reason I haven't updated this blog in six weeks is that I post all mapped out in my head about B.J. Ryan signing the richest deal ever for a closer and how that intersected with Jim Hendry's nuckin' futs middle relief acquisitions for the Cubs (Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre). The market for pitching, particularly relief, is disgusting this offseason.

But the free agent market always makes my wallet burn; I think I've been blowing the same sour notes since I was a baseball columnist in college over a decade ago. It doesn't really matter what's going on, whether Albert Belle is making $10 million a season or whatever, this kind of stuff has never sat well with me. And I've usually ended up taking an entirely reactionary, hot-button viewpoint of the inflated contracts and lauded teams for deals that never panned out, all of which gives me a sinking feeling that I'm not a particularly good judge of understanding the intersection of statistics and economics in the free market.

I'm better off explaining why Jeff Weaver and Matt Clement are exactly the same pitcher, and I may do just that in a subsequent post. It's weird how people keep drawing an analogy with the bullish market for housing: don't worry, people will come to their senses and things will level off. I can look out my window and see houses on my street, across from dark alleys where thugs work on their cars all day, with million dollar price tags. So what's an extra million or five in the realm of backloaded contracts and bonuses? And yet, the math doesn't quite work in my head, not when the Cardinals won't budge over $1 million a season for a second baseman or the Great Satan reports a loss of between $50-85 million in 2005.

Which is it: boom or bust?

Saturday, October 29, 2005

Don't Stop Believin'



I'm still totally gay for the White Sox.

Thursday, October 27, 2005

Black coat, white shoes, black hat, Cadillac

Hats off to Brandon Backe. I thought he was toast heading into Game 4, but he pitched the game of his life with seven shut-out innings. Textbook dominance -- he really seems to turn it on when the situation calls for it. I wish I could say the same for the rest of the Astros squad, who never really got into the game. Freddy Garcia and the Sox relievers kept painting the outside corners with two types of junk: high and low. And the Astros anemic line-up kept swinging and missing. Whiff, whiff, whiff.

It's tough to turn it on in the postseason. Just ask Barry Bonds. And it sorta sucks that Clemens, Bagwell and Biggio -- the latter two cornerstones of this humble franchise -- have to go out like this. If you're an Astros fan, you have no right to be pissed at Brad Lidge. I'm not even second guessing Garner's decision to pull Backe after 100 pitches and throw Lidge (now 0-3 in the 2005 postseason) into the bonfire, because the 'Stros got killed by their Achilles heel: too little depth on the bench and bullpen.

I'd like to say that I predicted this from the onset; the late-season White Sox slide left a few doubts about momentum in the playoffs, but they destroyed the Red Sox and Angels. None of the starters pitched a bad game in the postseason. And after that, there shouldn't have been any doubt as to who the World Champs were. And yet, all of the ESPN braintrust either picked the Astros or (in the case of wunderkinds Neyer and Gammons) the Sox in six or seven. Even the poll on ESPN currently favors the Astros as winners. I guess it's hard finding someone to identify with on a team with 2/5 of a Yankees rotation and one of the most hated men in baseball (catcher AJ Pierzinski). Big Frank? Nah. Paul Konerko? For the week or so before he hits free agency, yeah. Ultra-humble MVP Jermaine Dye? Uhhh....

Oh wait, here's the true MVP: Ozzie Guillen. The only thing more fun than watching Barbara Bush repeatedly making the O-face when the camera panned on her in the stands was seeing Guillen writhe and contort and -- ultimately errupt into paroxysms of joy -- in one nail-biter of a contest. Fox didn't even know how to market this, with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver reading off the neighborhoods on Chicago's South Side that support the Sox (Hyde Park? Not) and zero mention of Nellie Fox during the post-game highlight reel. Here's to the 2005 World Champion White Sox: one of the most dominant postseasons on record and still, regrettably, nobody's team.

Saturday, October 08, 2005

Dewey Defeats Truman



You're a Red Sox fan, and I pity you. Boomer got spanked and the blood on Curt Schilling's sock formed the shape of three straight losses. This is the postseason, where excellence is rewarded and dynasties are formed and shattered. There's isn't a lot of luck, Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins, be damned. Now it's my turn to gloat. The Red Sux faithful have a World Series ring to brag about and a giant payroll to reconcile for next year and beyond. This one is for the Chi-town massive. Imagine: the White Sox spent an entire season trying to find a closer, Takatsu and Hermanson tanked, and one Bobby Jenks suddenly materialized to nail the door shut on two postseason victories. Is he for real? Who cares? Look at Adrian Hernandez dropping a load in his pants in the picture -- it doesn't matter! While the remnants of Hurricane Rita pummel the Eastern Seabord, it's all clear skies in the Windy City. Want a reminder of how bad the White Sox need this? Ok, now slap on the wraparound shades and prepare to be blinded.

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Carpenter's in, let the games begin

Boo.
Boo yaa!
No duh.

I walked into a job interview this afternoon and saw a young girl at the receptionist's desk, sniffling. She was wearing a Red Sox cap. Then I looked up at the Plasma screen above her head and watched the White Sox pound it out in a 4-run 6th inning. Wow. Coulda, woulda, shoulda been there -- here's to hoping Chi-town's finest didn't blow through all their heavy ammo in the first game.

The St. Louis game was -- as everyone predicted -- a dud-o. Watch the Cards coast on auto-pilot through the series with Carpenter, Mulder and Morris on the mound serving up tasty treats and the St. Louis playing leapfrog with the meatiest part of their batting order. C'mon, the Padres are pushing Pedro Astacio out on the mound for Game 2. Seriously, that shit will not fly when the NL's best team meets the NL's most dangerous team. I may just skip this series and tune in later to soak in the greatness that is the Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt rotation. Jayson Stark predicts Houston goes all the way.

Gimme an Astros-White Sox series for Hanukkah, yo.

Sunday, September 18, 2005

Hair Club for Men

Season's almost over and Chris Carpenter has been clearing room for the Cy Young award on his mantle for months. I don't buy the argument -- as the Washington Post recently devoted several column inches to -- that Dontrelle Willis and Roger Clemens deserve more than passing consideration. The former has shown flashes of mortality this season; the latter's low win total is too big of a strike -- I just can't see someone collecting hardware with 13 or so wins. Besides, how great has Andy Pettite been down the stretch? What about Chad Cordero, who's been the backbone of the Nationals' inagural season?

Bill James loves thinking about this stuff, too, apparently: ESPN has been hosting a Cy Young Predictor on its site and it's all very fascinating. it's not a slam-dunk metric by any strecth (I'll explain in a second -- mostly because the voting committee has prejudices that don't necessarily match up with the data), but it does a really good job of parsing out who's been particularly valuable to their teams, etc. Here's the formula:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

"VB" is defined as "Victory Bonus," pro-rated and awarded for leading your team to a division championship. [Chris Carpenter scores well here]

The math works out well. Not sure why blown saves didn't have a statistical value, but I suppose the idea here is that loses are weighted heavily enough and it's not fair to charge something twice. Cincinnati's de facto closer David Weathers (7-3, 13 svs, 3.59 era) comes back with a score of 84.7 -- not even close to the leader board. No odd anomalies on the board either, though the AL leaders are split down the middle with 5 closers (including Hudston Street!) and 5 starters.

Bill James's tool suggests the following as the 10 most likely candidates for a 2004 Cy Young in the AL:

1 Johan Santana, Min 203.8 34 34 228.0 66 265 0 1 20-6 2.61 12
2 Mariano Rivera, NYY 196.3 74 0 78.2 17 66 53 0 4-2 1.94 12
3 Curt Schilling, Bos 174.5 32 32 226.2 82 203 0 0 21-6 3.26 0
4 Francisco Cordero, Tex 161.5 67 0 71.2 17 79 49 0 3-4 2.13 0
5 Joe Nathan, Min 158.4 73 0 72.1 13 89 44 0 1-2 1.62 12
6 Keith Foulke, Bos 136.7 72 0 83.0 20 79 32 0 5-3 2.17 0
7 Pedro Martinez, NYM 124.5 33 33 217.0 94 227 0 1 16-9 3.90 0
8 Mark Buehrle, CWS 120.9 35 35 245.1 106 165 0 1 16-10 3.89 0
9 Jake Westbrook, Cle 115.1 33 30 215.2 81 116 0 1 14-9 3.38 0
10 Troy Percival, Det 114.5 52 0 49.2 16 33 33 0 2-3 2.90 12

And here's how that years voting actually went:

1 Johan Santana MIN 28 140 140 1.00 | 20-6 228 2.61 0.92 265
2 Curt Schilling BOS 0 82 140 0.59 | 21-6 227 3.26 1.06 203
3 Mariano Rivera NYY 0 27 140 0.19 | 4-2 79 1.94 1.08 66 53
4 Pedro Martinez BOS 0 1 140 0.01 | 16-9 217 3.90 1.17 227
4 Joe Nathan MIN 0 1 140 0.01 | 1-2 72 1.62 0.98 89 44
4 F. Rodriguez ANA 0 1 140 0.01 | 4-1 84 1.82 1.00 123 12

Think the voting committee has a boner for Win-Loss records? For sure. So while Mariano Rivera's at the top of the Cy Young Predictor list again this year, there's no way that Bartolo Colon (currently 19-7) doesn't collect. Incidentally, the best pitcher in the AL is still Johan Santana...but, once again, the record (13-7) doesn't help.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

We Thank You For Your Support

So long, Lloyd McClendon. More ruminations here and here. Bench coach Pete Mackanin is filling the skipper's shoes on an interim basis until the end of the season, when a bigger name -- probably one associated with the area like Ken Macha or Art Howe -- will be courted to manage the redheaded stepchild of the NL East. Please let it be Ken Macha. I have the utmost respect for what Lloyd McClendon did with the Pirates -- I even sponsor his Baseball Reference page as a tribute. I don't think he made the best of a bad situation -- I constantly questioned his abaility to fill out a line-up card and he toyed endlessly with the batting order to no real, discernable effect. McClendon did help to develop a really solid nucleus of talent, but failed as a motivator (if you discount those epic turf wars with the St. Louis coaching staff).

Still, dude stole more bases as a manager than a player. I've got to tip my hat. And let's examine the records, ok? McClendon goes out the door with a .430 win percentage (336-446). His predecessor, Gene Lamont, compiled a .456 record (295-352) in four seasons. And during Jim Leyland's dark years with the Pirates ('93-'96), he compiled a .445 win percentage. This tells me that: a) Lamont was underrated (check his record as White Sox manager first if you want to disagree), b) no amount of resourcefulness or cleverness will help a manager to win if the talent isn't in place and c) the next guy is going to have as hard of a time if ownership still wants to pinch pennies. Rest easy, Lloyd, you are not to blame. We all good now, right?

Confidential to Sean: I've gone 100 posts with McClendon in the driver's seat. I'll go 100 more before the Bucs put together a respectable season. Maybe I'll think about changing the blog's name then.

Friday, August 26, 2005

Brother, can you spare a dime?

A movement is breweing over at Fire Dusty Baker, where they're calling for the Cubs manager's toothpick-munching wristband-wearing butt to get shipped right out of town. I'm all about it. I really feel like Dusty Baker is the worst thing to happen to the Cubs since Ryne Sandberg's first retirement. He doesn't agree, of course, and was quoted in the Sun-Times as saying "I still look at six or seven more years. There are things I need and want to accomplish. I'm still here. I plan on being here." Oh god, I hope not.

Baker's an ok tactician, in terms of putting a competitive squad on the field, but I wonder if he's really able to make the most of what he's got when the Cubs are currently 5 games under .500 on the season. Yes, injuries to Wood and Prior and Nomar killed some of the buzz. But St. Louis has Walker, Rolen and Sanders out of the line-up (and lost Isringhausen for half of the season) and is still in cruise control. Atlanta? Worst outfield in MLB until Cox ditched the old-timers in favor of an all-rookie LF-CF-RF combo. The Braves still have the goods.

That's the rub. Baker is notoriously terrible dealing with youg players. Just awful. Any success through the minor league pipeline should be attributed entirely to Jim Hendry and Andy McPhail. Where's Corey Patterson? What happened to Matt Murton and Jason Dubois? Will Zambrano recover from over-use and abuse? Will Felix Pie ever see a Cubs uniform? I like a little bit of flash and arrogance. It gets the fans riled up, and Tony LaRussa is the master of this. But have you ever seen a worse press conference interview than Dusty Baker? It's like a giant homework assignment where points are assigned by not answering the questions posed by the reporters. Boo.

Tuesday, August 23, 2005


Pride of the Yankees

Just got back from New York, where my gracious hosts Duncan and Molly helped me to continue my personal winning streak of seeing single games at different ballparks this season (White Sox-Pittsburgh-Washington-Philly) with a trip to see the Yankees' Single A club on Staten Island. I was hoping for a long-awaited visit to Shea Stadium, but then again, I'd never seen a minor league baseball game before last week. It was pretty great. The park is one of those new-school old-school constructions, with a lovely view of the waterfront and Ellis Island and the Manhattan skyline.

The team's so popular it has three mascots and an unofficial fourth -- some obese guy named King Henry who roams the stands with a crown and a bat-and-ball scepter. The official mascot of the Staten Island Yankees is Scooter the Holy Cow, a freckled, halo-wearing cow. He also has two female bovine acolytes. I know this is in tribute to Yanks great/sportscaster extrordinaire Phil Rizzuto, but I wonder how long the fun will last in light of MLB handing down the longest milk-related suspension ever. Also, the team store sells Yankees yarmulkes. That kinda rules.

Saturday, July 30, 2005

That Championship Season

Right now, Oakland and Houston are running at full court press. Both teams' records rested right around the .500 mark earlier this month, but after several months of win-lose-win-lose leapfrogging, the As and the 'Stros have gone 9-1 in their last ten games. This is what we expect from these franchises, both of which underperformed at the start of the season -- Billy Beane and Ken Macha love the underdog status and Phil Garner can't resist a good fight.

Head over to the NL East and the Nationals just can't keep it together. You may recall the Expos late-season identity crisis and attendant implosion after acquiring Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd a few years back. That's what's going on in Washington now as momentum has drained and Omar Minaya and Frank Robinson attempt to keep the ship from sinking with some spare parts. Nothing against Preston Wilson, Ryan Drese, Junior Spivey et al, but any team where Vinny Castilla and turdbox Cristian Guzman have soaked up that much playing time is bound to fail. These moves should have come a month or two into the season. It might be strange to talk about a team that's currently 55-48 in these terms, but a 2-8 record in the last 10 games speaks for itself. Everything Washington does, Atlanta does better.

Still, the worst best team in the majors right now is the Padres -- a drubbing last night at the hands of the Reds pushed the Pads' record to under .500. The Padres are the first team to lead their division with a losing record this late in the season since 1994. 18 teams in baseball have a superior record. And this team is 18-33 since June 1st. How do you keep losing like that and remain at the top of your division? The whole NL West is genuinely terrible; AZ, LA, SF and Colorado aren't putting up a threat. The dominance of St. Louis at the White Sox might play a role in skewing the standings, but the Padres really can't win outside of Petco. Right now, they can't win at all -- they'd have better odds of deciding the outcome of a game with a coin toss.

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Keeping Up With the Joneses

ESPN so hired the wrong guy. Todd Jones (in the midst of his best season ever) has been chronicling the Marlins' fortunes in a blog for The Palm Beach Post and he definitely has the idea of writing for the web down pat. His posts are eloquent and witty and he's quick to put his intentions and thoughts right out there. Amen to the post about the lack of fan support at Turner Field: "I'd rather go to see the game marketed well than just sit around and wait for a no-hitter." And, if you dig far enough back in the archives, you'll find Jones giving some love to former Tigers (and current Marlins) 'pen mate Brian Moehler -- which is reciprocated in the comments section by Moehler's father-in-law!

Friday, July 08, 2005

Small Wonder


Earlier this week, Sony spokeswoman Shoko Yanagisawa brought a 2 foot tall robot named QRIO to RFK Stadium to throw out the first pitch. The Nationals dropped the game to the Mets, but QRIO made a distinct impression with a clean fastball straight to the catcher's mitt. QRIO knows how to dance and has a vocabulary of 65,000 Japanese words. He also knows how to talk smack. Here's a portion of an interview I was able to conduct before the game through a Japanese translator:

Hey, great arm -- President Bush couldn't even land it over the plate.
HA HA. BZZAP! LAURA'S WIFE CAN EAT A BAG OF DICKS.

If the opposing pitcher was beaning your teammates, how would you respond?
I WOULD REPLACE JOSE GUILLEN'S RITALIN WITH NO-DOZ AND WATCH HIM RIP THE PANELS OFF THE CENTER FIELD WALL AND TURN HIM INTO A HUMAN TWINKIE.

What's wrong with Cristian Guzman anyway?
BZZAP! I FEEL BAD FOR MY HOMIE. IT ISN'T EASY BEING THE WORST PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL. ACTUALLY, IT IS EASY -- WHICH IS THE PROBLEM. DUDE NEEDS TO QUIT AND JOIN A PROFESSIONAL T-BALL LEAGUE.

What's your favorite part of the new (old) stadium experience?
ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAS SKILLZ. HE CAN DRIVE HIS CAR AND STOP AT AN ATM TO COUNT HIS MONEY AND STILL WIN THE RACE. WHEN MY AGENT SCOTT BORAS GETS ME OUT OF MY CONTRACT WITH SONY, I'LL BE GETTING MAD LOOT, HA HA HA.

Wait-you've retained Scott Boras as your agent?
GEORGE STEINBRENNER WILL PAY FOR ANYTHING. LOOK AT HOW MUCH MONEY HIDEKI IRABU GOT FOR TAKING A BREAK FROM THE BUFFET LINE. BZZAP! I MAINTAIN CONSTANT PITCH LOCATION AND VELOCITY THROUGH MY SUPERIOR PROGRAMMING. OTHER ATHELETES NEED TO GIVE 110%; I AM CAPABLE OF PERFORMING WELL AT 50%, WHICH LEAVES 60% FOR ME TO TEACH CRISTIAN GUZMAN HOW TO PLAY, TOO.

I suppose you've got a point...
I'M TAKING IT STRAIGHT TO THE MEIKYUKAI, MUTHAFUCKA.

Friday, July 01, 2005

My Milkshake Brings All the Boys to the Yard

Third game of the season for me in three different cities -- this time, in the cavernous environs of RFK Stadium. Messiah scored some sweet tickets on the first base line through his firm and I met up with the Blogroll All-Stars (Sean, Dan, Rachel) to see the Nationals continue their home-field dominance. First stop: Bill Cosby's favorite D.C. haunt, Ben's Chili Bowl, for chili-covered things and a pina colada milkshake. Great place to eat if you don't mind waiting (what seems like) hours to pay your check. So, anyway, the game: Esteban Loaiza carried a no-hitter through the 5th and the Nationals finished the month of June with a 20-6 record.

Still waiting for Dan to join the fray on his tract of internet real estate, but Sean has some deep thoughts and random musings about RFK's lack of ambiance up already. Not sure the Nationals are doing everything they could be doing to enrich fan relations with a winning team in town; everything -- from the dull banners draped over the outfield walls to the preternaturally mincing mascot Screech -- seems like an afterthought. Still, there are worse places to see a game: like the sixth circle of hell, where every seat has an enormous wad of chewing gum stuck to it (like mine) and the blue raspberry sno cones dye your teeth forever. See, Three Rivers Stadium wasn't so bad.

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

One-Run Wonders

On the opposite end of the Keystone State, the Pirates' record (34-41) also stands on the wrong side of .500. After an early season run of getting blown out of the park (the Brewers destroyed the team in back-to-back starts to open the season on an auspicious note), the Pirates are rediscovering what it means to lose ugly and sharing a little bit of the Phillies' pain. In back-to-back games against the Cardinals, the Bucs' offense vacationed in Cabo while the team lost 8-1 and 8-0. Painful.

The team's Pythagorean winning percentage (an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed) doesn't offer a ton of insight. Using the following formula, developed by Bill James:

(Runs Scored)^1.83
---------------------------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

We get a winning percentage of .471:

(316)^1.83
---------------------------------------------------------
(316)^1.83 + (337)^1.83

Which suggests that the Pirates have been slightly unlucky. The team's actual winning percentage is .453 (derived more easily by dividing the total games by team wins). At the midpoint of the month, before a series against the Yankees, the split was even larger -- though those two successive blowouts against the Cards erased a bit of the debt.

Still, last night's bummer of a loss against a surging Ryan Drese and the Nationals makes me think that the Pirates are even more unlucky that the stats suggest: 17 of the team's 41 losses -- a full third -- have been by a margin of exactly one run. Only 6 of the teams 31 wins have been by a margin of one run. Subtract the squeaky wins (this is NOT scientific) from the one-run losses, split the remaining number (the equivalent of a coin toss), award the Pirates 5 more wins -- and suddenly, we're looking at a 39-36 team...in the thick of the wild card race.

Somehow, it seems more noble to keep things tight and lose by smaller margins -- the whole "we almost got 'em!" principle in action. It does suggest that the Pirates are a better team than even Dave Littlefield would give them credit for. Pythagorean karmic discount or no, the true measure of a team's abilities rest in the W-L column. Either they're winning, or -- in the case of this year's Pirates -- they're simply handing games away.

Saturday, June 25, 2005

Irrestible Force Meets Immovable Object

The Phillies' 2005 season is shaping up to be as good as the Philly faithful hoped, and probably much better than expected -- given the team's uncanny ability to play itself out of contention and into mediocrity in May. As of this writing, the team's 39-35 with a win percentage of .527, with a sharper overall record than twenty clubs in MLB. The Phillies are better than the team that's 0.5 games above them in the standings (Atlanta) and have less holes than the team that's 1 game behind them (Florida). And Manuel's militia is in serious contention for a Wild Card spot, since the Cubs and Diamondbacks are mostly smoke and mirrors, freak injuries and career years.

Yet phenom Ryan Howard is languishing in the minors; everyone's ready to anoint him the next Ricky Jordan. Can't believe that the Pirates passed on him as booty for Kris Benson in a proposed trade last season, or that the Phillies were so hot on giving him a bus ticket out of town. And considering the imbroglio earlier this season with Howard and his agent attempting to force a trade, NBA-style, for lack of playtime -- the kid needs to come up.

Howard murdered rookie league and A pitching and tore the cover off the ball in AA, before slackening his pace somewhat in a promotion to AAA Scranton last year. Still, he averaged a HR every 11 at-bats or so and the power and walks stayed constant. And, barring an early season call-up as Thome's replacement this year, he's on fire in 2005. Spring stats (.537 slugging/ 940 OPS in 50 at-bats) have given way to HUGE numbers in AAA: he's leading the International League with a .390 average/ .481 on-base percentage/ .738 slugging. The OBP/slugging split is ridiculous.

So my friend Albert preaches moderation on this one: dump Chavez or Jason Michaels, give Howard 100 or so more major league at-bats in left field. Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily-News, perhaps forgetting the team's decent record with handling young talent, advocates a trade elsewhere: "Set the Prisoner of Thome free. A Ryan is a terrible thing to waste."

Here's an alternate plan: give 3B David Bell the boot, and eat the rest of this year's contract. He is, by far, the worst everyday regular on the Phillies and an offensive cipher. His OPS (total offensive production) mark of .650 in 250 at-bats is dreadful. What have you done for me lately? Next, move Jim Thome from 1B to 3B for the rest of the season, while he's shaking off the early-season injuries and dust. In his six seasons as a 3B for the Indians, between 1991-96, Thome's fielding stats were below league average -- but not by a significant margin. And Bell -- who committed 24 errors at the position in 2004 -- is no whiz, either. Third is a harder position than first from a defensive perspective; an average fielder with pop will win more games than a slightly better than average fielder with lesser offensive statistics.

And there's, what, three years to go on Thome's massive contract? Of course he won't want to do this -- he signed with Philly, at a discount, to stay installed at first base. But Thome will also be 38 at the end of his contract and is too valuable to move to a payroll sponge like the Yankees or a division contender. And he's slightly better than league average as a defender at 1st. But again: what have you done for me lately? Given the paucity of quality 3B around the league, coupled with the fact that the Phillies just shipped out their best 3B (Polanco) in this year's version of the annual hey-let's-get-another-middling-middle-reliever shuffle, production from that slot seems to address a far greater need than replacing Chavez or Michaels.

And, whoa, now there's room for Howard to collect some quality at-bats at first base, even though he seemed overmatched in his 28 at-at this point in the season. If the Phillies could stay patient with his predilection towards striking out (a prime source of tension with Byrd, Burrell, Rollins, etc), they might be rewarded with a significant power boost. Howard's piling up extra-base hits in AAA. One might question the wisdom of rocking the boat before the All-Star break, but the Phillies should consider being proactive for a change. A surgical strike might make the difference between another looks-great-on-paper 85-77 season (no playoffs) and a chance for a "Phillies!" chant during football season.

Thursday, June 16, 2005

No Rest for the Wicked

Carl Everett has apparently used up every last ounce of remaining goodwill with his recent comments to Maxim Magazine. I'm with him on his Wrigley Field sentiments -- imploding the stadium, in the wake off Mayor Daley's ridiculous new parking regulations in the Belmont-Clark area, is the best thing that could happen to the city of Chicago, short of the Cubs moving to Iowa. But no way do I endorse Mr. Everett's Rocker-like sentiments on homosexuality. Here's a guy who rips into Jose Canseco for being "ignorant" and simultaneously uses the lowest common denominator platform of a skin-mag interview for not-even-thinly-veiled hate speech: "Gays being gay is wrong. Two women can't produce a baby, two men can't produce a baby, so it's not how it's supposed to be. ... I don't believe in gay marriages. I don't believe in being gay." Yuck, that's all kinds of reprehensible. Have we learned nothing from Julian Tavarez's Chi-town missteps of a few years ago? Dude, buy a ticket to see Richard Greenburg's Take Me Out next time you're in New York and learn something. Until then, kindly shut the fuck up. And if any reps from the commissioner's office happen to be reading this, please avail yourselves of the opportunity to place a gag order on Jose Guillen and Anna Benson, as well.

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Less Than Zero

First White Sox game of the year was a total dud. Jose Contreras had his ass handed to him on a platter by an streaky Diamondbacks line-up in the first two innings and the game was a dismal 7-0 before I had finished my first drink. I find Contreras to be underwhelming and I guess the Sox brass does, too -- rumor has it that Orlando Hernandez is here to help ease Contreras' development and soothe his fragile psyche. Ozzie Guillen must feel that he needs some toughening, because he left him in there to sort things out for four more (scoreless) innings before going to the 'pen. Sox couldn't get it started offensively against Shawn Estes, either, save the Big Hurt's best Roy Hobbs/ Kirk Gibson impression with a line-drive solo shot to left field in the 4th -- a sort of weak reminder of what great things the team's capable of.

Still, this is a team built on the front of the rotation, a consistent bench and great coaching. The big weakness, outside of Dustin Hermansen, is a leaky bullpen. Last year's closing tandem of Luis Vizcaino (8th) and Shingo Takatsu (9th) came on to relieve Contreras and put together three solid innings between them. Neither has been particularly effective up to this point in the season, but I can't recall any reliever outside of Mike Jackson getting booed in a Sox uniform in the last few years. And the fans go nuts when Mr. Zero takes the mound: the jumbotron plays this ridiculous quick-cut anime style intro during his warm-ups and all of the other displays boast "Shingo Time!" Must be that awesome (and punishing) sidearm delivery. Why do so many Asian pitchers throw sidearm? I get the sense that it's something that's frowned upon in high school-college ball because of the damage it can do to yer elbow. Love watching it in action, though: Takatsu's arm has this ridiculous bull-whip motion where it snaps back into place after the ball has left his hand.

I'm not sold on the team as a contender yet, either -- though the team's working overtime to erase any lingering debt left over from the 1997 dump trade with the Giants. I think people are still steamed about that. Also, the team's division rivals Minnesota are, as always, dangerous and the Orioles and Angels look tough. I won't be around for the playoff run, either way; as I type this, all of our stuff has been packed neatly in boxes in preparation for the moving company to haul it out this afternoon. Of course, we'll be heading from one first-place town to the next. Actually, two: by the time next week, we'll be between Baltimore and D.C. in the Maryland suburbs. But no more games with my go-to guy Will, who I've seen, like, dozens of Sox and Cubs games with over the last 8 summers. In a sense, what happens on the field is almost irrelevant -- I'll probably remember our conversations long after the box scores have faded away.

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

The QT on OT

Great night for baseball if you're a fan of overtime games. Minnestota and Cleveland duked it out before the Twins thumped Riske in the 11th. Florida over Philly 4-3 in a 10 inning groaner. As I type this Pittsburgh and St. Louis are tied in the middle of the 11th inning (awesome game so far!) and Luis Ayala is facing Austin Kearns in the bottom of the 14th for a Cincy-Washington marathon. Wow. Was considering generating some statistics on the most cumulative innings played in an evening, but that might not be too telling in the expansion era. Now I could average it out to see the highest average of innings in any given baseball day, but that's a little to precious and geeky.

For our purposes, I'm more interested in something else: the longest baseball game ever played. Innings-wise, the longest was actually 26, but the game in question was played over a longer period: 8 hours 6 mins, 25 innings. Brewers (during the AL era) squaring off against my beloved Chicago White Sox on May 9, 1984. Interestingly enough, both teams were awful that year with sub-.500 records.

The game was so long that it had to be divided over two consecutive days: 17 innings were played on May 8th before play resumed on May 9th. Harold Baines hit a solo homer off of Chuck Porter in the 25th inning to give the Sox the victory; Tom Seaver was the pitcher of record after pitching a single inning and got the Win. Then he collected a win in the regularly-scheduled game that followed! Awesome. Also a record from that game: Tom Paciorek, a career .282 hitter, entered the game as a pinch-hitter in the 4th and came to the plate 9 times.

Now here's my question: does anyone know what the greatest number of overtime baseball games played in one single day is? Holla.

Friday, May 06, 2005

Snootchie Bootchies!!

Posted by Hello
Posted by Hello

John Rocker or Jason Mewes? I'm just sayin'.

Thursday, April 28, 2005

Decoration Day

Heading off to D.C. for a week to hang out with my dear friend Messiah, look for some new living arrangements, and research initiating a discrimination lawsuit against my-soon-to-be hometown team the Washington Nationals. I see some excellent dinners at Ethiopian restaurants in my immediate future. While we wait for me to pull my head out of my ass and resume regular posting (er, in about two months), might I strongly encourage you to catch up on the latest installments of Paul Lukas' excellent Uni Watch column? Lukas, author of the essential Beer Frame 'zine, also has his own website and it totally rules!

Saturday, April 09, 2005

Draft Day
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Here's some advice for anyone entering the working world: always make friends with the security guard in your building first. He/she's the one who's gonna get your back when you do something stupid like stretch a 30 minute lunch-break into an hour-and-a-half. Or rush into your place of employment on a Saturday with 8 of your friends to trash a conference room during your annual rotisserie (that's the term, since I prefer my fantasies to involve something other than sports) league baseball draft.

As drafts go, this one was fairly uneventful. The meat flinging incident of '91 or '92 is still fresh in everyone's minds as an example of what not to do when you're locked in a room with a group of similarly cranky people. These days, we're just aging disgracefully and acting out in completely passive-aggressive ways -- and maybe not as invested in baseball as we should be. Still, Some of us, like Gobo, always take the time and effort to concoct a draft plan that takes statistics and permutations and general auction strategies into account. That's him above, either right before or right after one of his epic staredowns with the League Commissioner Marc, figuring out who to add to his team of creaky-kneed 1997 All-Stars.

My draft plan this year involved drafting breakout candidate Odalis Perez (despite his utter lack of run support last year) and making sure my partner Messiah -- who's been burning the candle at both ends in prep for a series of trials -- actually stayed awake during the draft. Also: not ending up the draft with either Joe Randa or Cristian Guzman in our infield. We now have Joe Randa and Cristian Guzman in our infield. Oh well. Guzman's his usual terrible can't-get-on-first-base-if-his-life-depended-on-it self and Randa's leading the NL in home runs. WTF? I guess that's how these things shake out. In fifteen years (!) of drafting, I've certainly seen stranger things happen. Brady Clark, we kiss you.

Saturday, March 12, 2005

Barry Bonds and Eugenics

I'm going to take a short break from the in-joke of picking whatever's playing on iTunes at the moment as a title and molding a post around it. Did anyone pick up on that? I feel like I've been given a gift, people, and it would be irresponsible not to get sidetracked and sort it out. See, Barry Bonds wants you to know that steroids are no big deal. [The original link for the story on the MSN home page was even funnier, something like: "Barry Bonds on head, testicles -- OK!"]

Say...what? No, really: Barry Bonds called a press conference last week during spring training to tell people that his head size has not grown and his testicles haven't shriveled into little pits. Stephen Jay Gould would be so proud -- after all, large chunks of The Mismeasure of Man deal with the late 19th/ early 20th century pseudo-science of Eugenics and the metric of head size as a measure of intelligence. So we now that Bonds isn't any smarter, but credit him for being almost completely to the point in his observations, especially when you compare it to Jason Giambi's fruitless impression of Ronald Reagan at the Iran-Contra hearings at his own press conference. Two very different approaches to the same problem, which can be summarized as thus:

Bonds: I may have done these things that are associated with anabolic steroids and human growth hormone, but it was in the service of the greater good.

Giambi: I may or may not have done some things, but I can't tell you right now, so you'll just have to trust me to never tell you the truth.

To be fair, Giambi was already behind the 8-ball and Bonds initiated his own press conference as a preventative measure. Garry Sheffield thinks Bonds is full of shit, and it's a foregone conclusion for anyone who's kept even a passive eye on the sport of baseball over the past decade, but we'll pay good money to see Frankenstein lumber past Hank Aaron -- and hey, why not Josh Gibson or Saddaharu Oh, if his body can hold up -- for the home run title. Bonds recognizes his role as an "entertainer," which is what that press conference was all about.

Should be interesting to see what comes out of next week's congressional hearings on steroids, where both Bonds and Giambi have been subpoenaed to testify. Curt Schilling has already RSVP'd for the event -- which is sort of like placing John Denver in the same room as Dee Snider and Frank Zappa, but that's how it goes with a kangaroo court. And Bonds? Definitely on the 'roids. Wife knows it, kids know it, even his dog knows it. And the fact of the matter is that we can't rewrite history when it's convenient and, say, pull Ty Cobb out of the Hall because he was a douchebag. Bonds, like Cobb, is simply a product of his environment.

Friday, March 04, 2005

Get In or Get Out

The powers that be were really afraid that the Hall of Fame would become littered with plaques for a whole ton of undeserving Yankees, so they went ahead and revamped the credentials for the Veterans Committee. With the old Veteran's Committee, you always had to duck and wonder where the next Dom DiMaggio was coming from; a handful of undeserving candidates got inducted on the main ballot and the Hall suffers from bloat in general. But there was a fear that the Vet's Committee would stand in opposition of the dominant voting ideology and sneak a Roger Maris or a Thurman Munson through the back door.

Ron Santo and Gil Hodges picked up a few votes in this year's election, while Tony Oliva lost a few and Jim Kaat (fourth in overall voting) appeared on the ballot for the first time. Tony Oliva took it pretty hard during a spring training press conference and blamed geography/ playing in Minnesota for lack of exposure; the guy was a really great pure hitter (and led the AL in hits five times between 1964-1970) but not a HOFer by the magic standards. Hodges is probably even less interesting, though he has the Brooklyn Dodgers dynasty working in his favor. I can't believe Santo isn't in the Hall already -- extremely durable and he was probably the best 3B in the league during his prime. And one more thing about Jim Kaat, who has a lot of wins and a career ERA that compares favorably to the league average ERA: the guy won sixteen straight Gold Gloves at his position. Surely, that's some kind of record. Take that, Ozzie Smith!

What we've learned from the new Veterans Committee, which has now expanded to include everyone in the Hall of Fame: the passionate defense of Joe Torre's playing career will never approach a critical consensus. It's a red herring. Which is funny, because that was the whole reason for revamping the Veterans Committee in the first place. Turns out these guys are even more fiercely protective of the Hall's legacy than the Baseball Writers Association. Here's Tom Seaver on this year's deadlock, the second straight election with no new old-timers: ``I'm of the opinion it's going to be awfully hard [to elect additional members], and maybe that's how it should be.''

Yup.

Saturday, February 19, 2005

I Used to Love H.E.R.

Yeah, I still visit this piece of internet real estate from time to time. Not as much as I'd like. I held out on the blogging cliche of apologizing for my shoddy lack of effort as long as possible -- who hasn't had an acute case of writer's block or a mountain of impediments to dance around, you know? But winter in Chicago is a harsh mistress. I always forget how dire everything gets when the world outside your window is blanketed in 12 inches of snow, how life suddenly becomes about holding on to your very last bit of energy until the eventual thaw -- and the deep feelings of remorse that accompany that action when the first signs of spring emerge.

You get a little crazy and sometimes, you go the other direction entirely and start to feel invincible. And maybe you sniff at the idea of giving $75 million to an injury prone Magglio Ordonez and watch him catch the bus to Detroit. And you take a long, hard look at Kyle Farnsworth and decide that he's the projection of all of your failures and give him the boot, too. Sometimes nice people -- like Moises Alou -- get hurt, because we live in a society where ageism is an ugly fact of life. And sometimes the culpable get what they deserve, like Sammy Sosa, even though his foul attitude is rooted in your own team's sliding fortunes. It's not even spring yet, but the realization that the Cubs and White Sox will be going at it without Sammy and Magglio in 2005 -- even though they weren't ever my favorite players -- is powerful and hard to shake. Because they've been in Chicago longer than I've been here. We can win without them -- management thinks so, at least -- by remaking ourselves into the Braves and the A's. But we've never felt so mortal.

Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Somebody to Love

Three cheers for the brain trust at Dan Nation for sponsoring a player page at the baseball site-to-end-all-sites Baseball Reference. Dan gave his love to commemorate Archi Chianfrocco, who rode the pine for Montreal and San Diego in the 90s. Dan's heartfelt dedication can be viewed here . Now I will gladly follow in his footsteps and present to you -- drum roll, please -- my Baseball Reference sponsorship . This may be the best $10 I've ever spent.

Tuesday, January 04, 2005

Wade Bloggs

Never really had a personal connection with Wade Boggs -- and this takedown by ESPN's Bill Simmons illustrates why there wasn't a whole lot to get excited about. I don't agree that Jim Rice is more deserving of Hall of Fame enshrinement -- as this piece suggests -- but I'm in 100% percent agreement with the rest of his sentiments on Citizen Wade. Awesome career stats, less interesting personality than Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy or Keith Hernandez. In a word: boring.

Ryne Sandberg, on the other hand, was (in my mind) the best position player on the ballot and I'm thrilled to see him get into the Hall of Fame. I don't even like the Cubs, but Sandberg defined '80's baseball for me. He held the career home run mark for a second baseman until Jeff Kent pulled ahead recently with his best Ryno impression, and his stellar MVP season was only his 3rd or 4th best from an offensive standpoint. It's shocking how his accomplishments have diminished in the eyes of the Chi-town faithful -- he left us at the altar with an early retirement, of course, and came back when he probably shouldn't of, sure. But the fact that Sandberg got in isn't -- as one of my customers in a (get this) Cubs jersey alleged today -- due to a weak ballot this year but a minor disturbance in pattern in the general head-up-assery that prevails amongst the voting committee.

Next up: Ron Santo, Veterans Ballot. That would be the poetic icing on the cake of justice, wouldn't it?