R-O-I-D-S spell 'relief'
Ray Durham. Eli Marrero. Richie Sexson. Chipper Jones. Add in Austin Kearns aka The Unluckiest Man in Baseball -- who had his arm broken by a Ryan Voglesong fastball, and MLB player are dropping like flies this week. All strained groins and muscle injuries. Even sparkplug David Eckstein went down with a hamstring injury. I think I'm sentencing myself to an afterlife of eternal hellfire for even suggesting this, but it's sooooo fishy. I can't help but think our favorite players are going cold turkey on the 'roids and supplements to avoid detection in the next round of drug tests. Findings from the last round of tests implicated this guy, and results from the second round (when names can be named and fingers can be pointed) could cause irrepairable damage to a player's credibility. Or the fragile psyches of our nation's children, as our President would have us believe. Look at Jason Giambi this year and tell me he wasn't on 'roids before -- he's (literally) half the man he used to be. This hollistic health nut is leading a one-woman crusade against "the most abused class of drugs in your doctor's black bag." Cut through some of that purple prose, and there's a wealth of information about the healing properties of steroids. Players who take steroids do not get injured at the same rate as players who do not take steroids. But what's really dirty is Barry Bonds' trainer trying to tie things up indefinitely in litigation. Guess who will be joining me in hell?
Thursday, April 29, 2004
Tuesday, April 27, 2004
Mo'moneyball
So I've been waiting months to blast San Diego Padres GM Kevin Towers for the acquisition of Jeff Cirillo, a guy who's set to make around $14 million over the next two years to act as a late-inning substitution and occasionally spell Sean Burroughs at 3rd base. I'm sure Cirillo's a nice guy and all that, but that's an awful lot of money for a utility player with diminishing talent; The Seattle Mariners were so desperate to unload the guy that they bundled him with a pretty decent pitching prospect for a pile of rusty parts just to wash their hands of the entire affair. Still, Cirillo's contract isn't a mistake on the order of, say, the ridiculous multi-year deals Chan Ho Park or Darren Dreifort got during that same period of hyper-inflation. And what's weird about the Cirillo deal is that it wasn't a bad deal for the Padres at all. Smart, even, as a bait-cutting tactic -- trade three useless guys for one useless guy and consolidate. Observe:
Padres got:
Jeff Cirillo ($6.6 million '04, $7.1 million '05)
$4,775,000
Mariners got:
Kevin Jarvis ($4.25 million '04) [placed on waivers for purpose of unconditional release 4/27/04]
Wiki Gonzalez ($1.2 million '04, $2.25 million '05)
Dave Hansen ($750,000 '04)
The money works out almost perfectly even here, since Towers managed to prod the Ms to include cash in the deal to make up the difference between Cirillo and Gonzalez's 2005 salaries. I doubt the Padres will be able to unload Cirillo on another team without taking a hit (Towers is crossing his fingers, hoping for an unlikely return to his pre-Mariners form), but even if they can get away with only being responsible for, say, half of his salary, it's a big plus.
Money -- to quote my main man Jay-Z -- is going to be a gift and a curse for the Padres. Between exchanging Mark Kotsay for All-Sar catcher Ramon Hernandez and disgruntled OF Terrence Long, adding some guy named Brian Giles and committing $7 million to free agents Jay Payton and David Wells, the team's payroll has increased by $12 million dollars this year, or around 19% over last year's final numbers. As recently as 1998, the Padres were in the MLB top 10 for dollars spent. Last year, San Diego ranked 25th. This year, they've shot up to 18th. Is the team good enough to take the NL West? At this writing, they've just edged into first place and have the highest runs scored / runs allowed differential in what's shaping up to be a weak division. I just don't like how this team projects beyond 2005, though, and the long-term development of folks like Xavier Nady, Tagg Bozeid, Josh Barfield et al will undoubtedly be stunted. That beautiful new stadium ain't paying for itself, though.
So I've been waiting months to blast San Diego Padres GM Kevin Towers for the acquisition of Jeff Cirillo, a guy who's set to make around $14 million over the next two years to act as a late-inning substitution and occasionally spell Sean Burroughs at 3rd base. I'm sure Cirillo's a nice guy and all that, but that's an awful lot of money for a utility player with diminishing talent; The Seattle Mariners were so desperate to unload the guy that they bundled him with a pretty decent pitching prospect for a pile of rusty parts just to wash their hands of the entire affair. Still, Cirillo's contract isn't a mistake on the order of, say, the ridiculous multi-year deals Chan Ho Park or Darren Dreifort got during that same period of hyper-inflation. And what's weird about the Cirillo deal is that it wasn't a bad deal for the Padres at all. Smart, even, as a bait-cutting tactic -- trade three useless guys for one useless guy and consolidate. Observe:
Padres got:
Jeff Cirillo ($6.6 million '04, $7.1 million '05)
$4,775,000
Mariners got:
Kevin Jarvis ($4.25 million '04) [placed on waivers for purpose of unconditional release 4/27/04]
Wiki Gonzalez ($1.2 million '04, $2.25 million '05)
Dave Hansen ($750,000 '04)
The money works out almost perfectly even here, since Towers managed to prod the Ms to include cash in the deal to make up the difference between Cirillo and Gonzalez's 2005 salaries. I doubt the Padres will be able to unload Cirillo on another team without taking a hit (Towers is crossing his fingers, hoping for an unlikely return to his pre-Mariners form), but even if they can get away with only being responsible for, say, half of his salary, it's a big plus.
Money -- to quote my main man Jay-Z -- is going to be a gift and a curse for the Padres. Between exchanging Mark Kotsay for All-Sar catcher Ramon Hernandez and disgruntled OF Terrence Long, adding some guy named Brian Giles and committing $7 million to free agents Jay Payton and David Wells, the team's payroll has increased by $12 million dollars this year, or around 19% over last year's final numbers. As recently as 1998, the Padres were in the MLB top 10 for dollars spent. Last year, San Diego ranked 25th. This year, they've shot up to 18th. Is the team good enough to take the NL West? At this writing, they've just edged into first place and have the highest runs scored / runs allowed differential in what's shaping up to be a weak division. I just don't like how this team projects beyond 2005, though, and the long-term development of folks like Xavier Nady, Tagg Bozeid, Josh Barfield et al will undoubtedly be stunted. That beautiful new stadium ain't paying for itself, though.
Sunday, April 25, 2004
License revoked?
Whew, my rotisserie league draft is finally over and my team's not half bad. It's not half good, either -- but there are enough big bats in the line-up that I ought to finish somewhere in the middle of the pack barring a total collapse of my pitching staff and/or too many injuries and/or rampant dump trades. Results were somewhat skewed because the draft occured three weeks into the season this year, though the ebb and flow of the rounds (some bargains in the beginning, when people were hesitant to spend money; no bargains in the middle; lots of $1 bargains at the end when people were rushing to put a cap on the 8+ hr waking nightmare) was consistent with years past. Two things I've noticed about my league (a 12 team, NL-only league, traditional rules): 1) Rookies tend to be overvalued and 2) pitching is way overinflated. The worst offender in the first category was $18 for Aaron Miles, though he plays in that thin Colorado mountain air and is off to a fast start. Most pitchers went for double their "book value," especially starters and a few premium relievers -- very hard to find bargains when Jose Acevedo went for $13 and none of the top starters in the field went for less than $20.
Which is how I ended up with -- yikes! -- Shawn Estes and Jason Marquis anchoring my staff for $1 ea. One (very dominant, I might add) school of thought in rotisserie strategy says that you shouldn't spend more than one-third of your budget (approximately $85) on pitching. My team's right there with $84 spent on pitching, but given league inflation, I think everyone else overshot that ratio...which will make it very hard to stay competitve in the pitching categories. Wow, the draft is a bear, though -- I spent eight hours at my computer IMing with my team partner who was handling it all real time. I got to spend all day in my boxer shorts listening to iTunes and I still felt completely fried.
Also, Barry Bonds set a league record by going for $50. Is he worth it? Look upon his slugging percentage ye mighty and despair.
Whew, my rotisserie league draft is finally over and my team's not half bad. It's not half good, either -- but there are enough big bats in the line-up that I ought to finish somewhere in the middle of the pack barring a total collapse of my pitching staff and/or too many injuries and/or rampant dump trades. Results were somewhat skewed because the draft occured three weeks into the season this year, though the ebb and flow of the rounds (some bargains in the beginning, when people were hesitant to spend money; no bargains in the middle; lots of $1 bargains at the end when people were rushing to put a cap on the 8+ hr waking nightmare) was consistent with years past. Two things I've noticed about my league (a 12 team, NL-only league, traditional rules): 1) Rookies tend to be overvalued and 2) pitching is way overinflated. The worst offender in the first category was $18 for Aaron Miles, though he plays in that thin Colorado mountain air and is off to a fast start. Most pitchers went for double their "book value," especially starters and a few premium relievers -- very hard to find bargains when Jose Acevedo went for $13 and none of the top starters in the field went for less than $20.
Which is how I ended up with -- yikes! -- Shawn Estes and Jason Marquis anchoring my staff for $1 ea. One (very dominant, I might add) school of thought in rotisserie strategy says that you shouldn't spend more than one-third of your budget (approximately $85) on pitching. My team's right there with $84 spent on pitching, but given league inflation, I think everyone else overshot that ratio...which will make it very hard to stay competitve in the pitching categories. Wow, the draft is a bear, though -- I spent eight hours at my computer IMing with my team partner who was handling it all real time. I got to spend all day in my boxer shorts listening to iTunes and I still felt completely fried.
Also, Barry Bonds set a league record by going for $50. Is he worth it? Look upon his slugging percentage ye mighty and despair.
Thursday, April 22, 2004
The curious case of Chin-Feng Chen
No. As in: No, Chin-Feng Chen will never make it as a major league regular. The once hotshot OF prospect seems to have fallen out of favor in the Dodgers system entirely after a hot start in A ball in 1999. Shoulder surgery the following season may have derailed his career, but it doesn't seem like it affected his power of bat speed; as recently as 2001, the wise know-it-alls at Baseball America were still salivating over the prospect's prospects. Here's some thoughts on Chen from an Arizona Fall League preview before the 2002 season. Don't know who this Kenny Kelly dude is and the inclusion of Drew Henson is (as we now know) a complete joke, but Chen was placed in some fine company with the likes of Austin Kearns, Hank Blalock and Carl Crawford. These days, it looks like Chen is getting the Erubiel Durazo treatment: he's almost 27 and stuck in Las Vegas limbo. Scouts decry his plate discipline (with great power often comes great piles of strikeouts, though) and his defense after a move to 1B. And then, of course, there's the stat inflation that comes from playing in the PCL, which has a reputation as a "hitters" league -- though my impression has always been that bad minor league stats are an negative predictor of major league potentital, but not necessarily the converse. There's some sentiment towards trading him to an AL team for use as a DH, which is what conventional wisdom suggests you want do with these all-hit, no-field types -- but there's also no interest. Who needs another Jack Cust? Chen will probably stay as AAA filler until he can qualify as a 6-year minor league free agent, then sign with someone else and rot on that team's AAA roster waiting for the tease of a September call-up year after year. Which isn't such a horrible fate: why, this guy made a pretty good career out of it.
No. As in: No, Chin-Feng Chen will never make it as a major league regular. The once hotshot OF prospect seems to have fallen out of favor in the Dodgers system entirely after a hot start in A ball in 1999. Shoulder surgery the following season may have derailed his career, but it doesn't seem like it affected his power of bat speed; as recently as 2001, the wise know-it-alls at Baseball America were still salivating over the prospect's prospects. Here's some thoughts on Chen from an Arizona Fall League preview before the 2002 season. Don't know who this Kenny Kelly dude is and the inclusion of Drew Henson is (as we now know) a complete joke, but Chen was placed in some fine company with the likes of Austin Kearns, Hank Blalock and Carl Crawford. These days, it looks like Chen is getting the Erubiel Durazo treatment: he's almost 27 and stuck in Las Vegas limbo. Scouts decry his plate discipline (with great power often comes great piles of strikeouts, though) and his defense after a move to 1B. And then, of course, there's the stat inflation that comes from playing in the PCL, which has a reputation as a "hitters" league -- though my impression has always been that bad minor league stats are an negative predictor of major league potentital, but not necessarily the converse. There's some sentiment towards trading him to an AL team for use as a DH, which is what conventional wisdom suggests you want do with these all-hit, no-field types -- but there's also no interest. Who needs another Jack Cust? Chen will probably stay as AAA filler until he can qualify as a 6-year minor league free agent, then sign with someone else and rot on that team's AAA roster waiting for the tease of a September call-up year after year. Which isn't such a horrible fate: why, this guy made a pretty good career out of it.
Tuesday, April 20, 2004
The Ex-Pirate Factor
So the general consensus is that the Cubs made Pirates GM Dave Littlefield look D-U-M-B last year with a pair of trades that netted third-baseman Aramis Ramirez and two-month rentals of Kenny Lofton (now in the thick of a Kenny-or-Bernie? debate in New York) and Randall Simon (now back to his sausage-wackin' ways with the Pirates) for perpetually-injured non-prospect Bobby Hill, strikeout king Jose Hernandez and some other prospect that wasn't named Felix Pie and therefore wasn't worth it (Frank Brooks?). After the dust settled, it pretty much amounted to a Ramirez-for-Hill swap, which is just as one-sided as the Jon Lieber-for-Brant Brown trade and -- come to think of it -- every deal the Cubs and Pirates have agreed to in recent history. But that's what you get when you share a bed with your division rival, right?
Anyway, the "Ex-Pirate Factor" carried the Cubs a long way in 2003. Let's see how the "Ex-Pirate Factor" is helping the St. Louis Cardinals in 2004 after picking up three Pirates cast-offs: Reggie Sanders (who cashed in after a 1 year deal), Julian Tavarez (who, um, also cashed in after a 1 year deal) and Stinkin' Mike Lincoln (who the Pirates inexplicably protected on their 40-man roster to the exclusion of five Rule V losses and STILL dumped).
R. Sanders 49ab 4hr 13rbi 4sb .306ba .358obp .633slg
M. Lincoln 2-1 W-L 9.0 IP 8.00 k/9 1.00 ratio 4.00 era
J. Tavarez 0-0 W-L 4.0 IP 11.25 k/9 2.50 ratio 9.00era
Ok, ok, so two week's worth of stats don't really support a quantitative analysis, especially in the case of the two pitchers. Sanders (like the rest of the team's offense) is off to a fast start, Lincoln has vultured a couple of wins in short relief and Tavarez -- who got rocked in 3 of his last 4 outings -- is throwing hard but not fooling hitters. No surprises. These three (and former Pirates 2B Tony Womack, as well) are wearing red because Jim Leyland is a Cardinals scout and went with some known commodities. So no "Ex-Pirate Factor" mojo working here -- at least not yet.
Wouldn't it be cool if padding your bench with ex-Pirates worked as a reverse-curse, though? It would certainly make it easier for the Pirates to get fair trade for Kris Benson.
So the general consensus is that the Cubs made Pirates GM Dave Littlefield look D-U-M-B last year with a pair of trades that netted third-baseman Aramis Ramirez and two-month rentals of Kenny Lofton (now in the thick of a Kenny-or-Bernie? debate in New York) and Randall Simon (now back to his sausage-wackin' ways with the Pirates) for perpetually-injured non-prospect Bobby Hill, strikeout king Jose Hernandez and some other prospect that wasn't named Felix Pie and therefore wasn't worth it (Frank Brooks?). After the dust settled, it pretty much amounted to a Ramirez-for-Hill swap, which is just as one-sided as the Jon Lieber-for-Brant Brown trade and -- come to think of it -- every deal the Cubs and Pirates have agreed to in recent history. But that's what you get when you share a bed with your division rival, right?
Anyway, the "Ex-Pirate Factor" carried the Cubs a long way in 2003. Let's see how the "Ex-Pirate Factor" is helping the St. Louis Cardinals in 2004 after picking up three Pirates cast-offs: Reggie Sanders (who cashed in after a 1 year deal), Julian Tavarez (who, um, also cashed in after a 1 year deal) and Stinkin' Mike Lincoln (who the Pirates inexplicably protected on their 40-man roster to the exclusion of five Rule V losses and STILL dumped).
R. Sanders 49ab 4hr 13rbi 4sb .306ba .358obp .633slg
M. Lincoln 2-1 W-L 9.0 IP 8.00 k/9 1.00 ratio 4.00 era
J. Tavarez 0-0 W-L 4.0 IP 11.25 k/9 2.50 ratio 9.00era
Ok, ok, so two week's worth of stats don't really support a quantitative analysis, especially in the case of the two pitchers. Sanders (like the rest of the team's offense) is off to a fast start, Lincoln has vultured a couple of wins in short relief and Tavarez -- who got rocked in 3 of his last 4 outings -- is throwing hard but not fooling hitters. No surprises. These three (and former Pirates 2B Tony Womack, as well) are wearing red because Jim Leyland is a Cardinals scout and went with some known commodities. So no "Ex-Pirate Factor" mojo working here -- at least not yet.
Wouldn't it be cool if padding your bench with ex-Pirates worked as a reverse-curse, though? It would certainly make it easier for the Pirates to get fair trade for Kris Benson.
Monday, April 19, 2004
Omar Vizquel is in hiding
Everyone's (or every Indians fan's) favorite punching bag Jose Mesa has started out the season a perfect 5-5 in save opportunities with nice peripherals in an admittedly small sample size: 1 h + 1 w + 0 er in 5 1/3 innings. Save a comfortable 4-run cushion in the Bucs' 6-2 win over Philly on April 8 (a game in which less than 10,000 people attended!), all of Mesa's saves have come while upholding a one-run margin. It's easy to forget that Mesa has spent time as a reasonably effective pitcher: he was light-out with the Tribe in '95 and he pieced together 42 saves for the Phillies in 2001 with a 2.34 era. Of course, he hasn't done much in alternating years and finally claimed his role as the worst reliever in MLB (his woeful 2000 season with the Mariners came close) with a disastrously ineffective season last year. But then again, Billy Koch has arguably never had a good season and is set to make 5.5 million dollars more than Mesa this year; he's shaping up to be a nice pick-up for the Pirates. I think I'm starting to understand what Dave Littlefield was getting at when he set his mind on a veteran presence over retaining Tavarez/ Lincoln or throwing Torres/ Meadows into the saves mix. Mesa will do fine in this role as long as the Pirates remain out of contention and the pressure's off, which is exactly what Littlefield was expecting by fielding such a rookie-heavy team. Would rather see someone with truly filthy stuff like Oliver Perez tried out in that role, though...
Everyone's (or every Indians fan's) favorite punching bag Jose Mesa has started out the season a perfect 5-5 in save opportunities with nice peripherals in an admittedly small sample size: 1 h + 1 w + 0 er in 5 1/3 innings. Save a comfortable 4-run cushion in the Bucs' 6-2 win over Philly on April 8 (a game in which less than 10,000 people attended!), all of Mesa's saves have come while upholding a one-run margin. It's easy to forget that Mesa has spent time as a reasonably effective pitcher: he was light-out with the Tribe in '95 and he pieced together 42 saves for the Phillies in 2001 with a 2.34 era. Of course, he hasn't done much in alternating years and finally claimed his role as the worst reliever in MLB (his woeful 2000 season with the Mariners came close) with a disastrously ineffective season last year. But then again, Billy Koch has arguably never had a good season and is set to make 5.5 million dollars more than Mesa this year; he's shaping up to be a nice pick-up for the Pirates. I think I'm starting to understand what Dave Littlefield was getting at when he set his mind on a veteran presence over retaining Tavarez/ Lincoln or throwing Torres/ Meadows into the saves mix. Mesa will do fine in this role as long as the Pirates remain out of contention and the pressure's off, which is exactly what Littlefield was expecting by fielding such a rookie-heavy team. Would rather see someone with truly filthy stuff like Oliver Perez tried out in that role, though...
Saturday, April 17, 2004
Please Bowa, don't hurt 'em
Eh, Jim Thome and Pat Burrell each just knocked out their first home runs of the season last night in Philadelphia's boilerplate 4-2 win over the Expos. Read between the lines, and you'll see that Thome and Burrell are doing a fine job of knocking out hits and the start of this season; problem is, Jimmy Rollins and Bobby Abreu aren't. The old hit and run only works when your guys get on base. Doesn't look like the Phillies are taking many walks, either -- in the absance of at least one more big bopper, Larry Bowa should be paying more attention to OBP. Many of the pundits (including Jayson Stark, who is to the Phillies as Rob Neyer is to the Royals) have predicted the Phillies to land at the top of their division. But, um, that ain't going to happen while Larry Bowa's at the helm. Check out the records and division standings of Bowa's Philadelphia teams (courtesy Baseball Reference):
Year League Record Finish Manager
2003 NL East 86-76 3 Larry Bowa
2002 NL East 80-81 3 Larry Bowa
2001 NL East 86-76 2 Larry Bowa
What's at work here? Nostalgia? Nepotism? The invisible hand of Satan? Add in Bowa's brief tenure with the Padres in the late 1980s, and Bowa's managing record is supremely mediocre:
693 games 333-360 W-L .481 winning perecentage
It took a season and a quarter for Bowa to get exposed as a charlatan in San Diego. How long will the notoriously fickle Phillies phans be willing to chew over another shit sandwich after another slow start laying the groundwork for a long, long, fruitless season (3-6 at this writing)?
You heard it here first: Bowa will be the first MLB manager to get the boot in '04. Hitting coach Greg Gross should get the ax, too -- but that might have to be the subject of another post.
Eh, Jim Thome and Pat Burrell each just knocked out their first home runs of the season last night in Philadelphia's boilerplate 4-2 win over the Expos. Read between the lines, and you'll see that Thome and Burrell are doing a fine job of knocking out hits and the start of this season; problem is, Jimmy Rollins and Bobby Abreu aren't. The old hit and run only works when your guys get on base. Doesn't look like the Phillies are taking many walks, either -- in the absance of at least one more big bopper, Larry Bowa should be paying more attention to OBP. Many of the pundits (including Jayson Stark, who is to the Phillies as Rob Neyer is to the Royals) have predicted the Phillies to land at the top of their division. But, um, that ain't going to happen while Larry Bowa's at the helm. Check out the records and division standings of Bowa's Philadelphia teams (courtesy Baseball Reference):
Year League Record Finish Manager
2003 NL East 86-76 3 Larry Bowa
2002 NL East 80-81 3 Larry Bowa
2001 NL East 86-76 2 Larry Bowa
What's at work here? Nostalgia? Nepotism? The invisible hand of Satan? Add in Bowa's brief tenure with the Padres in the late 1980s, and Bowa's managing record is supremely mediocre:
693 games 333-360 W-L .481 winning perecentage
It took a season and a quarter for Bowa to get exposed as a charlatan in San Diego. How long will the notoriously fickle Phillies phans be willing to chew over another shit sandwich after another slow start laying the groundwork for a long, long, fruitless season (3-6 at this writing)?
You heard it here first: Bowa will be the first MLB manager to get the boot in '04. Hitting coach Greg Gross should get the ax, too -- but that might have to be the subject of another post.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)