Four on the floor

The great Colorado four-man rotation experiement ended in mid-May with a dull thud -- not enough empirical evidence could be amassesd to judge whether it was a success or a failure. Clint Hurdle talked some smack about limiting innings pitched and pitch counts and getting the most out of his starters and using his relief corps to better effect, but when all was said and done, the Rockies' four-man lasted about 10 days. Shawn Estes didn't even get an opportunity to pitch on "short" rest; mostly, it was confusing, akin to Cincinnati and Toronto's brief flirtations with the four-man last year.

Everybody thinks this a champion idea, mind you. Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus took a pretty nuanced approach and discovered that it was a nonsensical idea in Colorado, but wrote a three-part series of articles (scroll down to the third paragraph of the article in the previous link, and view his thoughts on the matter) on why it's an exciting notion to entertain overall. Redbird Nation (give this guy a Pulitzer or a Ford Frick Award or a Bloggie or something, seriously) did a really great job of summarizing and analyzing Jazayerli's findings as it might pertain to the Cardinals' rotation this year, basically breaking down the argument to show that the five-man rotation doesn't keep starters any healthier and that there's enough data to suggest that pitchers have better command on three day's rest than four.

My thoughts on PAP and PAP^3 notwithstanding, Jazayerli has taken Craig Wright's assumptions and crafted a really convincing case here. I mean, what's not to like? At this point, MLB teams are saying all the right things when the topic turns to reinstating the four-man rotation, but balking when it comes to walking the walk for practical/ logistical reasons or the purpose of satisfying fragile egos. The weight of the five-man rotation culture is proving a little more difficult to lift than previously expected.

Speaking of, the White Sox had the four-man rotation going in early May for about...four days. Most of us here in Chi-town didn't even notice. But Ozzie Guillen is flirting publicly with the idea of bringing it back for a longer trial run, and looking at the stats for everyone who's started for the pride of the South Side this season, it's easy to see why:

E. Loaiza 11 G / 11 GS / 6-3 W-L / 78.2 IP / 110.5 P/GS / 1.23 WHIP / 3.78 ERA
M. Buehrle 11 G / 11 GS / 5-1 W-L / 76.1 IP / 105.0 P/GS / 1.35 WHIP / 3.30 ERA
Schoeneweis 10 G / 10 GS / 5-2 W-L / 64.1 IP / 104.7 P/GS / 1.37 WHIP / 3.64 ERA
Jon Garland 10 G / 10 GS / 4-2 W-L / 68.2 IP / 105.9 P/GS / 1.38 WHIP / 3.93 ERA

Dan Wright 4 G / 4 GS / 0-4 W-L / 17.2 IP / 88.0 P/GS / 1.98 WHIP / 8.15 ERA
Felix Diaz 2 G / 2 GS / 0-1 W-L / 8.2 IP / 85.5 P/GS / 2.19 WHIP / 11.42 ERA
Jon Rauch 1 G / 1 GS / 0-1 W-L / 3.2 IP / 64.0 P/GS / 3.00 WHIP / 12.27 ERA
Neal Cotts 15 G /1 GS / 0-3 W-L / 19.1 IP / 54.0 P/GS / 1.40 WHIP / 4.66 ERA

Top four speak for themselves. Buehrle's having a great season, Garland had a terrific May, and all four have ERAs under the league average. Everyone in the fifth slot = terrible. Dan Wright's back in AAA after getting battered in 4 starts, while Felix Diaz and Jon Rauch got smoked in limited duty. Now reliever Neal Cotts is the latest to get thrown into the fray. Think he'll be any better? Well, White Sox fifth starters are 0-8 in 2004, and -- as reported by Peter Gammons -- the Sox haven't had a win from a fifth starter since 2002. Ouch.

Across town, the Cubs have a great fifth starter -- fella goes by the name of Greg Maddux. Every other team in MLB is not so blessed. Jazayerli and Rob Neyer and every blog author in the whole damn universe seems to think that the best way to dust off the four-man rotation might be to use a control group of some shitty baseball team. I say the Sox are in perfect position to implement it -- they're obviously getting nothing from the #5 spot (actually, worse than nothing -- a guaranteed loss) and they've got a winning team with momentum (the loss of Magglio smarts, though). Going four-man for the rest of the season would give Loaiza and Buehrle 6 more starts and Schoeneweis and Garland 5 more starts, maybe 30-40 extra innings for each. I believe that the projection I saw for Loaiza had him topping the list with 250 innings on the season, assuming no trips to the DL. Plus, Guillen seems to be regulating their pitch counts. That's not bad. The kids, as the marketing campaign from a few years back should remind us, can play.