Hair Club for Men

Season's almost over and Chris Carpenter has been clearing room for the Cy Young award on his mantle for months. I don't buy the argument -- as the Washington Post recently devoted several column inches to -- that Dontrelle Willis and Roger Clemens deserve more than passing consideration. The former has shown flashes of mortality this season; the latter's low win total is too big of a strike -- I just can't see someone collecting hardware with 13 or so wins. Besides, how great has Andy Pettite been down the stretch? What about Chad Cordero, who's been the backbone of the Nationals' inagural season?

Bill James loves thinking about this stuff, too, apparently: ESPN has been hosting a Cy Young Predictor on its site and it's all very fascinating. it's not a slam-dunk metric by any strecth (I'll explain in a second -- mostly because the voting committee has prejudices that don't necessarily match up with the data), but it does a really good job of parsing out who's been particularly valuable to their teams, etc. Here's the formula:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

"VB" is defined as "Victory Bonus," pro-rated and awarded for leading your team to a division championship. [Chris Carpenter scores well here]

The math works out well. Not sure why blown saves didn't have a statistical value, but I suppose the idea here is that loses are weighted heavily enough and it's not fair to charge something twice. Cincinnati's de facto closer David Weathers (7-3, 13 svs, 3.59 era) comes back with a score of 84.7 -- not even close to the leader board. No odd anomalies on the board either, though the AL leaders are split down the middle with 5 closers (including Hudston Street!) and 5 starters.

Bill James's tool suggests the following as the 10 most likely candidates for a 2004 Cy Young in the AL:

1 Johan Santana, Min 203.8 34 34 228.0 66 265 0 1 20-6 2.61 12
2 Mariano Rivera, NYY 196.3 74 0 78.2 17 66 53 0 4-2 1.94 12
3 Curt Schilling, Bos 174.5 32 32 226.2 82 203 0 0 21-6 3.26 0
4 Francisco Cordero, Tex 161.5 67 0 71.2 17 79 49 0 3-4 2.13 0
5 Joe Nathan, Min 158.4 73 0 72.1 13 89 44 0 1-2 1.62 12
6 Keith Foulke, Bos 136.7 72 0 83.0 20 79 32 0 5-3 2.17 0
7 Pedro Martinez, NYM 124.5 33 33 217.0 94 227 0 1 16-9 3.90 0
8 Mark Buehrle, CWS 120.9 35 35 245.1 106 165 0 1 16-10 3.89 0
9 Jake Westbrook, Cle 115.1 33 30 215.2 81 116 0 1 14-9 3.38 0
10 Troy Percival, Det 114.5 52 0 49.2 16 33 33 0 2-3 2.90 12

And here's how that years voting actually went:

1 Johan Santana MIN 28 140 140 1.00 | 20-6 228 2.61 0.92 265
2 Curt Schilling BOS 0 82 140 0.59 | 21-6 227 3.26 1.06 203
3 Mariano Rivera NYY 0 27 140 0.19 | 4-2 79 1.94 1.08 66 53
4 Pedro Martinez BOS 0 1 140 0.01 | 16-9 217 3.90 1.17 227
4 Joe Nathan MIN 0 1 140 0.01 | 1-2 72 1.62 0.98 89 44
4 F. Rodriguez ANA 0 1 140 0.01 | 4-1 84 1.82 1.00 123 12

Think the voting committee has a boner for Win-Loss records? For sure. So while Mariano Rivera's at the top of the Cy Young Predictor list again this year, there's no way that Bartolo Colon (currently 19-7) doesn't collect. Incidentally, the best pitcher in the AL is still Johan Santana...but, once again, the record (13-7) doesn't help.