Alors! C'est super-bon!

Well, Eric Gagne gave up a solo shot to Jason Giambi (the spell checker suggests "gimpy" as an alternative to "Giambi" -- hah!) in the 9th inning of tonight's Dodgers-Yankees game before retiring the rest to nail the contest. One more run or one more man on base and Gagne would've cut the link in his consecutive saves streak. Instead, Gagne held it together for his 18th save of the season and 81st consecutive save (only regular-season games count in the streak, so getting lit up in the 2003 All-Star game doesn't count). Amazing. The season's about 40% over and the guy hasn't blown a save since 2002. Barring a late season upswing in opportunities, Gagne will probably fail to rack up 50 saves for a third consecutive season, but the guy has the best stuff of any closer I've seen by a wide margin. His fastball is almost as unhittable as Billy Wagner (though Philly fans have lately taken to booing him when his fastball tops out at 98mph) and he mixes in a slick change-up and a better-than-average curveball, to boot. Throw in that Cy Young and his distinction as the fastest pitcher to record 100 saves in MLB history, and we're witnessing the makings of a Hall of Fame career.

Or are we? Baseball Reference doesn't shed much light on Gagne's potential, yet because the comparison points are almost non-existent. It's hard to put too much stock in the site's Hall of Fame monitor, which does a great job of evaluating dead locks (Barry Bonds) or players on-the-verge (Sammy Sosa) but not folks like James Howard Thome. There's really no historical perspective for the closer. Eckersley's in the Hall, of course, but he spent half of his career as a starter. And then there's guys like Goose Gossage (shoulda been inducted as a first ballot) and Bruce Sutter (invaluable in redefining the role of the closer, but iffy) and Lee Smith (most saves ever by a mile, but few dominating seasons also make him iffy) knocking at the door.

The standards for the specialist who pitches in (at best) half the games in a season have been set sensibly high, but Gagne's numbers speak well of his talent -- one Cy Young and another top 5 finish, two All-Star appearances, and 1-2 finishes in the saves and games finished leaders boards in 2003 and 2002. Robb Nen, the best analogue in terms of age and make-up, racked up 314 saves by age 32 with the Marlins and Giants...and then his arm fell-off. Nen hasn't pitched since 2002 and may not see any action in 2004; by the time he comes back, he could be a totally different pitcher. Arm injuries seriously derailed Matt Mantei's career, too, and it's the one thing (knock on wood) that could hamper Gagne's chances. Gagne is way better than either of those guys, though -- his last two seasons were more dominating than any of Nen's best (1996; 1998; 2000). If Gagne can make it to 400 saves (an average of about 35/season through age 35 -- not unreasonable at all) with a few more high Cy Young voting finishes, a few more high appearances towards the top of the saves leaders board and a lengthening of that already exciting consecutive save streak, he's a mortal lock. Hall of Fame voters won't be able to deny his (comparatively) brief, brilliant career.