One-Run Wonders

On the opposite end of the Keystone State, the Pirates' record (34-41) also stands on the wrong side of .500. After an early season run of getting blown out of the park (the Brewers destroyed the team in back-to-back starts to open the season on an auspicious note), the Pirates are rediscovering what it means to lose ugly and sharing a little bit of the Phillies' pain. In back-to-back games against the Cardinals, the Bucs' offense vacationed in Cabo while the team lost 8-1 and 8-0. Painful.

The team's Pythagorean winning percentage (an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed) doesn't offer a ton of insight. Using the following formula, developed by Bill James:

(Runs Scored)^1.83
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(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

We get a winning percentage of .471:

(316)^1.83
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(316)^1.83 + (337)^1.83

Which suggests that the Pirates have been slightly unlucky. The team's actual winning percentage is .453 (derived more easily by dividing the total games by team wins). At the midpoint of the month, before a series against the Yankees, the split was even larger -- though those two successive blowouts against the Cards erased a bit of the debt.

Still, last night's bummer of a loss against a surging Ryan Drese and the Nationals makes me think that the Pirates are even more unlucky that the stats suggest: 17 of the team's 41 losses -- a full third -- have been by a margin of exactly one run. Only 6 of the teams 31 wins have been by a margin of one run. Subtract the squeaky wins (this is NOT scientific) from the one-run losses, split the remaining number (the equivalent of a coin toss), award the Pirates 5 more wins -- and suddenly, we're looking at a 39-36 team...in the thick of the wild card race.

Somehow, it seems more noble to keep things tight and lose by smaller margins -- the whole "we almost got 'em!" principle in action. It does suggest that the Pirates are a better team than even Dave Littlefield would give them credit for. Pythagorean karmic discount or no, the true measure of a team's abilities rest in the W-L column. Either they're winning, or -- in the case of this year's Pirates -- they're simply handing games away.