Irrestible Force Meets Immovable Object

The Phillies' 2005 season is shaping up to be as good as the Philly faithful hoped, and probably much better than expected -- given the team's uncanny ability to play itself out of contention and into mediocrity in May. As of this writing, the team's 39-35 with a win percentage of .527, with a sharper overall record than twenty clubs in MLB. The Phillies are better than the team that's 0.5 games above them in the standings (Atlanta) and have less holes than the team that's 1 game behind them (Florida). And Manuel's militia is in serious contention for a Wild Card spot, since the Cubs and Diamondbacks are mostly smoke and mirrors, freak injuries and career years.

Yet phenom Ryan Howard is languishing in the minors; everyone's ready to anoint him the next Ricky Jordan. Can't believe that the Pirates passed on him as booty for Kris Benson in a proposed trade last season, or that the Phillies were so hot on giving him a bus ticket out of town. And considering the imbroglio earlier this season with Howard and his agent attempting to force a trade, NBA-style, for lack of playtime -- the kid needs to come up.

Howard murdered rookie league and A pitching and tore the cover off the ball in AA, before slackening his pace somewhat in a promotion to AAA Scranton last year. Still, he averaged a HR every 11 at-bats or so and the power and walks stayed constant. And, barring an early season call-up as Thome's replacement this year, he's on fire in 2005. Spring stats (.537 slugging/ 940 OPS in 50 at-bats) have given way to HUGE numbers in AAA: he's leading the International League with a .390 average/ .481 on-base percentage/ .738 slugging. The OBP/slugging split is ridiculous.

So my friend Albert preaches moderation on this one: dump Chavez or Jason Michaels, give Howard 100 or so more major league at-bats in left field. Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily-News, perhaps forgetting the team's decent record with handling young talent, advocates a trade elsewhere: "Set the Prisoner of Thome free. A Ryan is a terrible thing to waste."

Here's an alternate plan: give 3B David Bell the boot, and eat the rest of this year's contract. He is, by far, the worst everyday regular on the Phillies and an offensive cipher. His OPS (total offensive production) mark of .650 in 250 at-bats is dreadful. What have you done for me lately? Next, move Jim Thome from 1B to 3B for the rest of the season, while he's shaking off the early-season injuries and dust. In his six seasons as a 3B for the Indians, between 1991-96, Thome's fielding stats were below league average -- but not by a significant margin. And Bell -- who committed 24 errors at the position in 2004 -- is no whiz, either. Third is a harder position than first from a defensive perspective; an average fielder with pop will win more games than a slightly better than average fielder with lesser offensive statistics.

And there's, what, three years to go on Thome's massive contract? Of course he won't want to do this -- he signed with Philly, at a discount, to stay installed at first base. But Thome will also be 38 at the end of his contract and is too valuable to move to a payroll sponge like the Yankees or a division contender. And he's slightly better than league average as a defender at 1st. But again: what have you done for me lately? Given the paucity of quality 3B around the league, coupled with the fact that the Phillies just shipped out their best 3B (Polanco) in this year's version of the annual hey-let's-get-another-middling-middle-reliever shuffle, production from that slot seems to address a far greater need than replacing Chavez or Michaels.

And, whoa, now there's room for Howard to collect some quality at-bats at first base, even though he seemed overmatched in his 28 at-at this point in the season. If the Phillies could stay patient with his predilection towards striking out (a prime source of tension with Byrd, Burrell, Rollins, etc), they might be rewarded with a significant power boost. Howard's piling up extra-base hits in AAA. One might question the wisdom of rocking the boat before the All-Star break, but the Phillies should consider being proactive for a change. A surgical strike might make the difference between another looks-great-on-paper 85-77 season (no playoffs) and a chance for a "Phillies!" chant during football season.