One-Run Wonders
On the opposite end of the Keystone State, the Pirates' record (34-41) also stands on the wrong side of .500. After an early season run of getting blown out of the park (the Brewers destroyed the team in back-to-back starts to open the season on an auspicious note), the Pirates are rediscovering what it means to lose ugly and sharing a little bit of the Phillies' pain. In back-to-back games against the Cardinals, the Bucs' offense vacationed in Cabo while the team lost 8-1 and 8-0. Painful.
The team's Pythagorean winning percentage (an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed) doesn't offer a ton of insight. Using the following formula, developed by Bill James:
(Runs Scored)^1.83
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(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
We get a winning percentage of .471:
(316)^1.83
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(316)^1.83 + (337)^1.83
Which suggests that the Pirates have been slightly unlucky. The team's actual winning percentage is .453 (derived more easily by dividing the total games by team wins). At the midpoint of the month, before a series against the Yankees, the split was even larger -- though those two successive blowouts against the Cards erased a bit of the debt.
Still, last night's bummer of a loss against a surging Ryan Drese and the Nationals makes me think that the Pirates are even more unlucky that the stats suggest: 17 of the team's 41 losses -- a full third -- have been by a margin of exactly one run. Only 6 of the teams 31 wins have been by a margin of one run. Subtract the squeaky wins (this is NOT scientific) from the one-run losses, split the remaining number (the equivalent of a coin toss), award the Pirates 5 more wins -- and suddenly, we're looking at a 39-36 team...in the thick of the wild card race.
Somehow, it seems more noble to keep things tight and lose by smaller margins -- the whole "we almost got 'em!" principle in action. It does suggest that the Pirates are a better team than even Dave Littlefield would give them credit for. Pythagorean karmic discount or no, the true measure of a team's abilities rest in the W-L column. Either they're winning, or -- in the case of this year's Pirates -- they're simply handing games away.
Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Saturday, June 25, 2005
Irrestible Force Meets Immovable Object
The Phillies' 2005 season is shaping up to be as good as the Philly faithful hoped, and probably much better than expected -- given the team's uncanny ability to play itself out of contention and into mediocrity in May. As of this writing, the team's 39-35 with a win percentage of .527, with a sharper overall record than twenty clubs in MLB. The Phillies are better than the team that's 0.5 games above them in the standings (Atlanta) and have less holes than the team that's 1 game behind them (Florida). And Manuel's militia is in serious contention for a Wild Card spot, since the Cubs and Diamondbacks are mostly smoke and mirrors, freak injuries and career years.
Yet phenom Ryan Howard is languishing in the minors; everyone's ready to anoint him the next Ricky Jordan. Can't believe that the Pirates passed on him as booty for Kris Benson in a proposed trade last season, or that the Phillies were so hot on giving him a bus ticket out of town. And considering the imbroglio earlier this season with Howard and his agent attempting to force a trade, NBA-style, for lack of playtime -- the kid needs to come up.
Howard murdered rookie league and A pitching and tore the cover off the ball in AA, before slackening his pace somewhat in a promotion to AAA Scranton last year. Still, he averaged a HR every 11 at-bats or so and the power and walks stayed constant. And, barring an early season call-up as Thome's replacement this year, he's on fire in 2005. Spring stats (.537 slugging/ 940 OPS in 50 at-bats) have given way to HUGE numbers in AAA: he's leading the International League with a .390 average/ .481 on-base percentage/ .738 slugging. The OBP/slugging split is ridiculous.
So my friend Albert preaches moderation on this one: dump Chavez or Jason Michaels, give Howard 100 or so more major league at-bats in left field. Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily-News, perhaps forgetting the team's decent record with handling young talent, advocates a trade elsewhere: "Set the Prisoner of Thome free. A Ryan is a terrible thing to waste."
Here's an alternate plan: give 3B David Bell the boot, and eat the rest of this year's contract. He is, by far, the worst everyday regular on the Phillies and an offensive cipher. His OPS (total offensive production) mark of .650 in 250 at-bats is dreadful. What have you done for me lately? Next, move Jim Thome from 1B to 3B for the rest of the season, while he's shaking off the early-season injuries and dust. In his six seasons as a 3B for the Indians, between 1991-96, Thome's fielding stats were below league average -- but not by a significant margin. And Bell -- who committed 24 errors at the position in 2004 -- is no whiz, either. Third is a harder position than first from a defensive perspective; an average fielder with pop will win more games than a slightly better than average fielder with lesser offensive statistics.
And there's, what, three years to go on Thome's massive contract? Of course he won't want to do this -- he signed with Philly, at a discount, to stay installed at first base. But Thome will also be 38 at the end of his contract and is too valuable to move to a payroll sponge like the Yankees or a division contender. And he's slightly better than league average as a defender at 1st. But again: what have you done for me lately? Given the paucity of quality 3B around the league, coupled with the fact that the Phillies just shipped out their best 3B (Polanco) in this year's version of the annual hey-let's-get-another-middling-middle-reliever shuffle, production from that slot seems to address a far greater need than replacing Chavez or Michaels.
And, whoa, now there's room for Howard to collect some quality at-bats at first base, even though he seemed overmatched in his 28 at-at this point in the season. If the Phillies could stay patient with his predilection towards striking out (a prime source of tension with Byrd, Burrell, Rollins, etc), they might be rewarded with a significant power boost. Howard's piling up extra-base hits in AAA. One might question the wisdom of rocking the boat before the All-Star break, but the Phillies should consider being proactive for a change. A surgical strike might make the difference between another looks-great-on-paper 85-77 season (no playoffs) and a chance for a "Phillies!" chant during football season.
The Phillies' 2005 season is shaping up to be as good as the Philly faithful hoped, and probably much better than expected -- given the team's uncanny ability to play itself out of contention and into mediocrity in May. As of this writing, the team's 39-35 with a win percentage of .527, with a sharper overall record than twenty clubs in MLB. The Phillies are better than the team that's 0.5 games above them in the standings (Atlanta) and have less holes than the team that's 1 game behind them (Florida). And Manuel's militia is in serious contention for a Wild Card spot, since the Cubs and Diamondbacks are mostly smoke and mirrors, freak injuries and career years.
Yet phenom Ryan Howard is languishing in the minors; everyone's ready to anoint him the next Ricky Jordan. Can't believe that the Pirates passed on him as booty for Kris Benson in a proposed trade last season, or that the Phillies were so hot on giving him a bus ticket out of town. And considering the imbroglio earlier this season with Howard and his agent attempting to force a trade, NBA-style, for lack of playtime -- the kid needs to come up.
Howard murdered rookie league and A pitching and tore the cover off the ball in AA, before slackening his pace somewhat in a promotion to AAA Scranton last year. Still, he averaged a HR every 11 at-bats or so and the power and walks stayed constant. And, barring an early season call-up as Thome's replacement this year, he's on fire in 2005. Spring stats (.537 slugging/ 940 OPS in 50 at-bats) have given way to HUGE numbers in AAA: he's leading the International League with a .390 average/ .481 on-base percentage/ .738 slugging. The OBP/slugging split is ridiculous.
So my friend Albert preaches moderation on this one: dump Chavez or Jason Michaels, give Howard 100 or so more major league at-bats in left field. Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily-News, perhaps forgetting the team's decent record with handling young talent, advocates a trade elsewhere: "Set the Prisoner of Thome free. A Ryan is a terrible thing to waste."
Here's an alternate plan: give 3B David Bell the boot, and eat the rest of this year's contract. He is, by far, the worst everyday regular on the Phillies and an offensive cipher. His OPS (total offensive production) mark of .650 in 250 at-bats is dreadful. What have you done for me lately? Next, move Jim Thome from 1B to 3B for the rest of the season, while he's shaking off the early-season injuries and dust. In his six seasons as a 3B for the Indians, between 1991-96, Thome's fielding stats were below league average -- but not by a significant margin. And Bell -- who committed 24 errors at the position in 2004 -- is no whiz, either. Third is a harder position than first from a defensive perspective; an average fielder with pop will win more games than a slightly better than average fielder with lesser offensive statistics.
And there's, what, three years to go on Thome's massive contract? Of course he won't want to do this -- he signed with Philly, at a discount, to stay installed at first base. But Thome will also be 38 at the end of his contract and is too valuable to move to a payroll sponge like the Yankees or a division contender. And he's slightly better than league average as a defender at 1st. But again: what have you done for me lately? Given the paucity of quality 3B around the league, coupled with the fact that the Phillies just shipped out their best 3B (Polanco) in this year's version of the annual hey-let's-get-another-middling-middle-reliever shuffle, production from that slot seems to address a far greater need than replacing Chavez or Michaels.
And, whoa, now there's room for Howard to collect some quality at-bats at first base, even though he seemed overmatched in his 28 at-at this point in the season. If the Phillies could stay patient with his predilection towards striking out (a prime source of tension with Byrd, Burrell, Rollins, etc), they might be rewarded with a significant power boost. Howard's piling up extra-base hits in AAA. One might question the wisdom of rocking the boat before the All-Star break, but the Phillies should consider being proactive for a change. A surgical strike might make the difference between another looks-great-on-paper 85-77 season (no playoffs) and a chance for a "Phillies!" chant during football season.
Thursday, June 16, 2005
No Rest for the Wicked
Carl Everett has apparently used up every last ounce of remaining goodwill with his recent comments to Maxim Magazine. I'm with him on his Wrigley Field sentiments -- imploding the stadium, in the wake off Mayor Daley's ridiculous new parking regulations in the Belmont-Clark area, is the best thing that could happen to the city of Chicago, short of the Cubs moving to Iowa. But no way do I endorse Mr. Everett's Rocker-like sentiments on homosexuality. Here's a guy who rips into Jose Canseco for being "ignorant" and simultaneously uses the lowest common denominator platform of a skin-mag interview for not-even-thinly-veiled hate speech: "Gays being gay is wrong. Two women can't produce a baby, two men can't produce a baby, so it's not how it's supposed to be. ... I don't believe in gay marriages. I don't believe in being gay." Yuck, that's all kinds of reprehensible. Have we learned nothing from Julian Tavarez's Chi-town missteps of a few years ago? Dude, buy a ticket to see Richard Greenburg's Take Me Out next time you're in New York and learn something. Until then, kindly shut the fuck up. And if any reps from the commissioner's office happen to be reading this, please avail yourselves of the opportunity to place a gag order on Jose Guillen and Anna Benson, as well.
Carl Everett has apparently used up every last ounce of remaining goodwill with his recent comments to Maxim Magazine. I'm with him on his Wrigley Field sentiments -- imploding the stadium, in the wake off Mayor Daley's ridiculous new parking regulations in the Belmont-Clark area, is the best thing that could happen to the city of Chicago, short of the Cubs moving to Iowa. But no way do I endorse Mr. Everett's Rocker-like sentiments on homosexuality. Here's a guy who rips into Jose Canseco for being "ignorant" and simultaneously uses the lowest common denominator platform of a skin-mag interview for not-even-thinly-veiled hate speech: "Gays being gay is wrong. Two women can't produce a baby, two men can't produce a baby, so it's not how it's supposed to be. ... I don't believe in gay marriages. I don't believe in being gay." Yuck, that's all kinds of reprehensible. Have we learned nothing from Julian Tavarez's Chi-town missteps of a few years ago? Dude, buy a ticket to see Richard Greenburg's Take Me Out next time you're in New York and learn something. Until then, kindly shut the fuck up. And if any reps from the commissioner's office happen to be reading this, please avail yourselves of the opportunity to place a gag order on Jose Guillen and Anna Benson, as well.
Tuesday, June 14, 2005
Less Than Zero
First White Sox game of the year was a total dud. Jose Contreras had his ass handed to him on a platter by an streaky Diamondbacks line-up in the first two innings and the game was a dismal 7-0 before I had finished my first drink. I find Contreras to be underwhelming and I guess the Sox brass does, too -- rumor has it that Orlando Hernandez is here to help ease Contreras' development and soothe his fragile psyche. Ozzie Guillen must feel that he needs some toughening, because he left him in there to sort things out for four more (scoreless) innings before going to the 'pen. Sox couldn't get it started offensively against Shawn Estes, either, save the Big Hurt's best Roy Hobbs/ Kirk Gibson impression with a line-drive solo shot to left field in the 4th -- a sort of weak reminder of what great things the team's capable of.
Still, this is a team built on the front of the rotation, a consistent bench and great coaching. The big weakness, outside of Dustin Hermansen, is a leaky bullpen. Last year's closing tandem of Luis Vizcaino (8th) and Shingo Takatsu (9th) came on to relieve Contreras and put together three solid innings between them. Neither has been particularly effective up to this point in the season, but I can't recall any reliever outside of Mike Jackson getting booed in a Sox uniform in the last few years. And the fans go nuts when Mr. Zero takes the mound: the jumbotron plays this ridiculous quick-cut anime style intro during his warm-ups and all of the other displays boast "Shingo Time!" Must be that awesome (and punishing) sidearm delivery. Why do so many Asian pitchers throw sidearm? I get the sense that it's something that's frowned upon in high school-college ball because of the damage it can do to yer elbow. Love watching it in action, though: Takatsu's arm has this ridiculous bull-whip motion where it snaps back into place after the ball has left his hand.
I'm not sold on the team as a contender yet, either -- though the team's working overtime to erase any lingering debt left over from the 1997 dump trade with the Giants. I think people are still steamed about that. Also, the team's division rivals Minnesota are, as always, dangerous and the Orioles and Angels look tough. I won't be around for the playoff run, either way; as I type this, all of our stuff has been packed neatly in boxes in preparation for the moving company to haul it out this afternoon. Of course, we'll be heading from one first-place town to the next. Actually, two: by the time next week, we'll be between Baltimore and D.C. in the Maryland suburbs. But no more games with my go-to guy Will, who I've seen, like, dozens of Sox and Cubs games with over the last 8 summers. In a sense, what happens on the field is almost irrelevant -- I'll probably remember our conversations long after the box scores have faded away.
First White Sox game of the year was a total dud. Jose Contreras had his ass handed to him on a platter by an streaky Diamondbacks line-up in the first two innings and the game was a dismal 7-0 before I had finished my first drink. I find Contreras to be underwhelming and I guess the Sox brass does, too -- rumor has it that Orlando Hernandez is here to help ease Contreras' development and soothe his fragile psyche. Ozzie Guillen must feel that he needs some toughening, because he left him in there to sort things out for four more (scoreless) innings before going to the 'pen. Sox couldn't get it started offensively against Shawn Estes, either, save the Big Hurt's best Roy Hobbs/ Kirk Gibson impression with a line-drive solo shot to left field in the 4th -- a sort of weak reminder of what great things the team's capable of.
Still, this is a team built on the front of the rotation, a consistent bench and great coaching. The big weakness, outside of Dustin Hermansen, is a leaky bullpen. Last year's closing tandem of Luis Vizcaino (8th) and Shingo Takatsu (9th) came on to relieve Contreras and put together three solid innings between them. Neither has been particularly effective up to this point in the season, but I can't recall any reliever outside of Mike Jackson getting booed in a Sox uniform in the last few years. And the fans go nuts when Mr. Zero takes the mound: the jumbotron plays this ridiculous quick-cut anime style intro during his warm-ups and all of the other displays boast "Shingo Time!" Must be that awesome (and punishing) sidearm delivery. Why do so many Asian pitchers throw sidearm? I get the sense that it's something that's frowned upon in high school-college ball because of the damage it can do to yer elbow. Love watching it in action, though: Takatsu's arm has this ridiculous bull-whip motion where it snaps back into place after the ball has left his hand.
I'm not sold on the team as a contender yet, either -- though the team's working overtime to erase any lingering debt left over from the 1997 dump trade with the Giants. I think people are still steamed about that. Also, the team's division rivals Minnesota are, as always, dangerous and the Orioles and Angels look tough. I won't be around for the playoff run, either way; as I type this, all of our stuff has been packed neatly in boxes in preparation for the moving company to haul it out this afternoon. Of course, we'll be heading from one first-place town to the next. Actually, two: by the time next week, we'll be between Baltimore and D.C. in the Maryland suburbs. But no more games with my go-to guy Will, who I've seen, like, dozens of Sox and Cubs games with over the last 8 summers. In a sense, what happens on the field is almost irrelevant -- I'll probably remember our conversations long after the box scores have faded away.
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