Monday, December 13, 2004

Writ Large

Peter Gammons wins the J.G. Taylor Spink Award and joins fellow luminary Ring Lardner in Baseball Hall of Fame. Throw ya hands up!

So, will Flogging Molly be playing the induction ceremony?

Saturday, December 11, 2004

You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch

Marlins spokesman Bruce Rubin on owner Jeff Loria recent meeting with Las Vegas officials: "These were social discussions, a get-to-know-each-other meeting. Simply, Vegas wants a baseball team and the Marlins are a baseball team. It was decided that the two sides should get together."

I think I threw up in my mouth a little when I read this published report. It's not the sentiment, it's the phrasing. You know, peanut butter tastes good on sandwiches and chocolate is a delicious treat -- why not put the two together and make something even more delicious? No one who witnessed Art Modell's dismantling of the Browns and overnight move to Baltimore will buy this line, and Jeff Loria's Machiavellian maneuvering as owner of Les Expos assures us that it's all about the dollar for him.

Sure, sure, the only thing more cliche than an owner crying poverty is a fan complaining that an owner is a greedy pig. But Loria is truly a piece of work. Is Montreal a bad town for baseball? Yes. Is Miami a bad town for baseball? Maybe. But for the same reasons that the White Sox struggle to fill the stands in the third largest market in baseball. If you build a good team, the fans will come. And if you dismantle a team, the fans respond in the only way they know how. That's the simple economics of a 162-game schedule. People support the Marlins -- inclement weather and tropical rainstorms aside -- when the team is good. And the team has won two World Series rings in the last seven years, which is pretty terrific.

By all accounts, Pro Player Stadium is an awful place to see a game. And what team hasn't tried to strongarm its host city into financing a new park in the post-Camden Yards/ Jacobs Field era? Loria's timing is terrible, though: the threat of a move is appalling when used as a negotiation tactic. Is all hope truly lost in Miami? Have the Marlins explored all their options for financing a new ballpark? Why do teams feel like they bear no responsibility in making capital improvements? It's not that Miami is lucky to have the Marlins; the Marlins are lucky to have Miami.

Tuesday, December 07, 2004

Into the Void

;Posted by Hello

My girlfriend used to work about a block away from a plaque commemorating the Haymarket Riots. Here in Chi-town, we've got public parks in the middle of nowhere dedicated to Eugene V. Debs. The City of Chicago built itself on the spirit of labor reform; the city's rise as a financial center is a natural outgrowth of a massive population explosion, but it still bleeds blue like Gary, Indiana or Kalamazoo, Michigan. I'll save my thoughts on labor unions for another day and another blog, but as someone who's paid dues for a union in the past (United Auto Workers) and has found himself employed a variety of mixed/ union/ non-union locations, all I can say is that the MLB Players Union is its own worst enemy right now.

MLB doesn't have a deep history of voided contracts -- Aaron Boone's basketball injury springs to mind immediately and a series of contracts were voided during some strange administrative reshuffling in the strike shortened 1994 season. And of course, Denny Neagle -- a poster-boy for salary bloat -- is all over the news wire right now for (literally) getting caught with his pants down. Forget about Boone, who was in obvious violation of the terms of his contract. And let's also not consider the aberration of '94, because so much of it flew under the radar. Neagle, though, is a warning sign for what happens when baseball half-heartedly attempts to enforce morals.

Let's set the record straight here: despite defaming him in the press, the Yankees did not terminate Kevin Brown's contract last season after a self-inflicted injury. Jason Giambi's job with the Yankees is probably safe, as is Barry Bonds' continued employment with the Giants; it's rough going from here on out for both, but their respective value to their teams is tied inextricably to their ability to place butts in seats. But what happens when you move on down the line to someone like Benito Santiago, who's been rumored to be on the 'roids and has a comparatively modest 2.5 million left on his contract with the Royals? Or The Neck that Ate Chicago? His trade value is less than nil in the wake of steroid allegations and the Cubs would love to take his contract and drop it like it's hot.

The MLB Players Union has zero leverage until it adopts a steroid testing policy. In the face of sharp criticism from bulldog Sen. John McCain, the Union is saying that it would be "open" to adopt a more stringent testing policy. Union boss Don Fehr has defended the current policy, wherein players were tested once between spring training and the end of the regular season. Once. So where's the statistical sample? And if everyone and their mom and their dog knew that Bonds and Giambi were on 'roids, then everyone knew about the prevalence of doping agents -- you could sleepwalk through the Summer Olympics and catch a fucking clue.

What the Players Union needs to understand is that its in their best interest to adopt aggressive testing measures, whether or not their interests fall in line with the "moral good" of baseball. Not because John Mc Cain or President Bush wants it or Bud Selig peeks out from under his desk to sheepishly agree, but because it's the only leg the players have to stand on when protecting their bloated contracts. What we'd definitely see is an impediment to owners/teams voiding player contracts, since all the Union reps would have to say is that Player A admits he has a problem, he will accept the attendant penalties and he will seek treatment and counseling to resolve the problems. Will testing drastically reduce the frequency of steroid use within the league? Hell no, baseball's too soft on crime and it'd take the threat of something like a salary cap to sort that one out.

Saturday, December 04, 2004

Jason and the Argue-Nots

Seems like everytime I go visit my parents, Dave Littlefield dismantles the Pittsburgh Pirates. Folks, if you want to know what to get me for Christmas (er, Hanukkah) this year, it's really easy: make the bleeding stop! I spent 12 hours pacing nervously in O'Hare airport on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, wondering if I should just resign myself to camping out there over the entire weekend a la Tom Hanks. Heard the Jason Kendall-to-Oakland rumors swirling all week (with Mark Mulder possibly coming in return, yeah right!) and then -- boom! -- cracked open the paper on Saturday morning to read all about the twin salary dump the teams orchestrated.

If you scroll down a few posts to early November, you'll see that I feel pretty strongly about Kendall. Mark Redman was a decent catch -- in light on Kris Benson's $8 million contract with the Mets, he'll provide similar production with no illusions of being anything other than a #4-5 starter. His lone season in the NL was his best (Florida, 2003), so his numbers should roll back a little in the less hitting-friendly league. And if the Bucs can trade for Prentice Redman and get an endorsement from Red Man Chewing Tobacco, they'll have a monopoly on all the major league Redmen. Arthur Rhodes, the other guy involved in the deal, was a major dud for Oakland last season -- though the Pittsburgh front office knows they're dealing from a position of strength in terms of the bullpen, and they'll try to spin him for some hitting (one rumor has him being flipped to L.A. for Milton Bradley, yeah right!) or, more likely, release him during Spring Training. So no thanks there.

In short, they made out as best as they could. Just like the Brian Giles deal, which, given some distance to reflect, turned out amazingly for the Pirates. You won't see the same kind of returns here, because of the strict major league talent ratio. Oakland obviously felt than Rhodes and Redman have nowhere to go but down, and no surprise that the Pirates felt the same way about Kendall. Last time out, I took the high road discussing Kendall -- trying to get into Billy Beane's head to figure out Kendall's present-day value as an OBP and defensive threat. Right here and now, he seems like an awfully good fit for the A's.

And present value is what you think of when the wounds are still raw. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette columnist Ed Cook slammed the deal in a front-page piece the morning after, and who could blame him? It's painful anytime a player with a modicum of talent gets shipped out of town. My esteemed colleague One Man Band pretty much encapsulates my feelings on the trade: bad deal, leaves the Pirates vulnerable at catcher, doesn't really provide the financial flexibility that you'd assume, and the Pirates won't do anything with the few million dollars in savings except pad the war chest. Totally on the mark!

Cook's colleague at the PG, The Stats Geek, took another tack and tried to calm nerves by weighing Kendall's injury history and future durability against the examples of Johnny Bench and the major drop-off in service time most catchers experience after age 30. Of the top 20 catchers who caught the most games up through age 30, only 2 rank in the top 20 of games caught after 30. Offensive production is a corollary to health behind the plate, too Johnny Bench caught 539 games from ages 27-30 and 415 from 31-34; his OPS dipped from .836 to .794 in the same interval. How about Carlton Fisk? 522 games from 27-30 and 453 from 31-34 with an OPS slide from .853 to .761. Mike Piazza? 592 games from 27-30, 438 (541 games total -- he also played a lot of first base in '04) from 31-34 with a huge OPS slide.

Folks like Gary Carter and Roy Campanella held up pretty well, of course, but Kendall has already caught 1252 games through age 30 and the major drop-off begins after 1300 games. I still think he has a lot of life left in him; save his gruesome injury in '99, he's been very durable. And he has three years left on his contract, not coincidentally the age 31-34 period discussed above. Can Kendall catch a lot of games in that interval and hit for a high average? History says no for catchers with an extreme workload. Kendall has only caught 442 games over the least three seasons, though; he'll have no problem equaling that production.