Howe now, brown cow

Rob Neyer got a lesson in ethics this week. Texas Rangers reliever Frank Francisco now has more time for those inevitable anger management classes. I'm thinking Jim Duquette might want to consider sensitivity training during the offseason, as his plan for firing Mets manager Art Howe at the end of the season leaked early and he had to put the spin control in motion in order to worm out of yet another PR disaster. Art Howe seems like a stand-up guy, though; he agreed to stay on for the remaining 17 games of the season after meeting with Duquette. A generous move, I'd say, as the inconvenience of replacing Howe for the last couple of weeks of the season is the last thing the Mets need to cap off a dreadful season.

And to be fair, it's not Howe's fault. I mean, in his two seasons of managing the Mets, he has barely cracked a .400 win percentage, which means he might as well have been managing the Brewers. Actually, I'll bet he wishes he had inked a deal to manage the Brewers two years ago -- there's promise for the future with a nice core of young talent on that team, while the Mets don't have anything to look forward to without massive restructuring.

Ultimately, it's all about the talent. A great team (like Howe's A's teams) can succeed without a great manager (and Moneyball would have you believe that Howe is not one, though I'm not sure I agree with that assessment). A great, or good or even competent, manager can't do much without a team that has the tools to succeed: here's Lloyd McClendon, patron saint of this here blog, floundering year after year with the Pirates. So what role does a manager play? Filling out those line-up cards, for one, and giving a team a reason to believe and motivating them when they need a swift kick in the ass (Jack McKeon to the Marlins '03; Phil Garner to the Astros '04).

Also, it should be mentioned that the only thing worse than Mets management is the team's luck this year. Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui did impressions of Samuel L. Jackson in Unbreakable and forced Jeff Keppinger and Wilson Delgado into the starting line-up. Piazza waffled about playing first base, so now Todd Zeile is there. Trades -- Hidalgo, Benson, Zambrano -- did absolutely nothing and seemed like profligate excuses for spending money better served in a roth IRA or stuffed inside a mattress. Starters dropped like flies, and then their replacements dropped like flies, and then the 3rd string replacements couldn't keep healthy.

And Art Howe? He'll still have his dignity at the end of the season. No one else affiliated with the Mets can say the same.

Fresh meat

The NL Rookie of the Year race just got interesting. No one's come close to having a season like Henry Rowengartner had for the Cubs in, oh, '93. But this season, it has been neck-and-neck between Pirates OF Jason Bay (The Outfielder Formerly Known As The Brian Giles Trade Throw In) and Padres SS Khalil Greene (The Only MLB Player Who Practices The Bah'ai Faith). Jason Bay missed nearly two months to open the season -- but collected Rookie of the Month honors in June and July -- which some pundits decided was enough to disqualify him from consideration. But, oh wait -- Khalil Greene broke a finger on Monday night and now he's out for the rest of the season. So injuries took their toll on both seasons.

Here's Khalil Greene's season numbers:
484ab /66r/ 132h/ 15hr/ 65bi/ 4sb/ .273ba/ .349obp/ .446slg/ .795ops

And here's Jason Bay through Wednesday 9/14/04:
350ab/ 55r/ 103h/ 23hr/ 72bi/ 3sb/ .294ba/ .372obp/ .571slg/ .943ops

I don't think we even need to consider the 50 or so at-bats (and handful of home runs and rbi) Bay will have over the rest of the season to do a point-by-point comparison. 300 abs is all that should be needed to qualify for consideration -- that's plenty to make a mark. And isn't it odd to see the same folks who rushed to anoint Dontrelle Willis (who came up later in the season than Brandon Webb) last year's NL ROY using the same criteria to argue that Greene would be a better choice?

Bay's not flawless, mind you: he strikes out at a much greater clip than Greene, has been thrown out stealing more, and has hit into more double-plays. Fair enough. Defense gets thrown out there a lot as a reason why Greene's the superior candidate, and of course he's playing a much harder defensive position, and he's made some Sports Center highlight reel plays this season, but check it out: Greene has 20 errors on the season and a fielding percentage of .965. Mr. Bay (in half of the "chances") has exactly one error and a fielding percentage of .995. Translation: he does not suck in the field.

Beyond that, the leads in all power categories should nail the door shut. Especially that .943 ops -- not Barry Bonds ungodly, but amazing. Hammer says: u can't touch that. I mean, that's it. End of story. Jason Bay has been the most consistent performer on the Pirates this year; Greene is...playing a role. Better than Ramon Vasquez, sure. But he's no Jason Bay.

Don't Worry, Lo Duca

Montreal's all tied up for a motocross racing event, so it's the Marlins vs. Expos at a neutral location on Monday and Tuesday. I'm soooo there. Is this a first? I mean, the Expos have obviously played a large number of games at Hiram Bithorn Stadium over the past couple of years, Las Vegas has hosted regular season games, and season openers have occurred in Monterey and Japan -- but has inclement weather or some other hardship, in combination with a lack of availability at either "home" or "away" fields, ever forced a neutral-location game(s) between two opponents during the regular season?

P.S. Carl Pavano will be robbed if he doesn't collect the NL Cy Young this year. I'm still sad he broke the engagement with Alyssa Milano off, ending all hopes for a hyphenated Milano-Pavano married name.

Update 9/12/04: Both games start at 1:05, and *sniff* I'll be chained to my desk at work. Tickets are $15, the whole stadium will be general admission, and a third of the gate receipts go to disaster relief. Kudos to MLB.

Also, the answer to the question I posed above is that the Yanks played the Angels in Shea Stadium for one game in '98 while Yankee Stadium was undergoing mandatory repairs. Also, Oakland played 6 games in Las Vegas to open the '96 season -- but what I was really searching for was something like the Yankees-Angels-Shea Stadium example.

Chi-town follies

While the whole world waited for Barry to join the 700 club (it'll happen this season, and he'll surpass Ruth the next and then Aaron the next because of a little thing called T-E-N-A-C-I-T-Y), Gobo rolled into town for a conference and we headed over to Wrigley Field to watch a Cubs-Expos game from the (sorta) cheapie section. Big fun -- hanging out with Gobo, at least. He came prepared for the party with a Cubs jersey with his own name imprinted on the back of it, probably because he shares a name with a certain obsessive-compulsive relieverwho likes to chew on, like, bark and trace circles on the pitcher's mound. When I see this guy pitch, all I can think of is Tony Shaloub in Monk.

And the game itself? To quote Iggy and the Stooges: no fun, no fun, no fun. Greg Maddux kept it on lockdown through 7 innings before everything went boom and the Expos pounded out 5 runs in the 8th. Wasn't Maddux's fault, though -- he only ended up with two earned runs on his line, due in part to Derrek Lee booting a throw to first and catcher Paul Bako wildly misplaying a shouldn't-have-done-it-under-any-circumstance throw to second base.

And the Cubs could not put together the hits against Montreal starter Scott Downs (once traded from the Cubs to the Expos for Henry Rodriguez, a hero in Montreal back when folks cared enough to throw O Henry! candy bars onto the field), who came into the game with a 7.00+ era. Sammy Sosa looked mortal for the first time since he donned a Cubs uniform in 1992 and just hacked, hacked, hacked away at the pitches. Nomar Garciaparra (back in a Cubs uniform in '05? We couldn't decide) grounded into two double-plays and stranded four runners on base. And Mike Remlinger came in to relieve Maddux for a third of an inning and coughed up another run, prompting a huge Bronx cheer from the largely disinterested crowd.

On the plus side, a few fans walked away with Ryne Sandberg autographed baseballs. On the other side, this was the game where the Astros overtook the Cubs for the Wild Card lead...and then lost it again. So we've got the Cubs tied with the Astros and the Giants, with Florida and Philly within spitting distance, at this writing. Florida has more games to make up (including some which may be moved to the South Side of Chicago because of Hurricane Ivan -- how strange is that?). That's my pick. Philly's not fooling anyone and the Marlins are the only team that has the pitching to compete in the playoffs. Watch the Cubs take a dirt nap in October and please be sure to congratulate me on the fact that my commute time coming home from work is sure to reduce by 50%.

Stinkees


 

How therapeutic is this? Very. For one, it gives me an opportunity to figure out how to post images to this here blog. Beyond that, though, it gives me a chance to relive the glory of the Evil Empire's worst defeat...EVER. How bad was it? To find a shutout as lopsided as Cleveland's crushing victory on Wednesday evening, you'd have to hop on the time machine with Mr. Peabody and Sherman and go all the way back to 1900, a Pittsburgh team comprised of folks with curly mustaches and sissy knickers pounded the pepper out their Cubs competitors.

The press seemed to be really concerned with A-Rod and Babyface Jeter's reactions after the game. But what about Kevin Brown, all 10-4 up in this bitch, breaking his hand in a fit of frustration two nights ago and jeopardizing the rest of his season? It's as hard to comprehend as Steinbrenner's post-game motivational schtick where he likened the plight of the Yankees to the plight of New York after the events of September 11, 2001.

Barring a spectacular collapse, the Yankees will at least qualify for a Wild Card spot. Minnesota and Oakland appear to have it locked up in the other divisions, but the Yankees-Red Sox dogfight is the only race that matters in the AL right now. As of this writing, the Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 games, while Ben Affleck's team has cruised to a 9-1 record. What part does momentum play? It's huge if you've ever played Def Jam Vendetta. The Yanks lead has crumbled to 2.5 games in the AL East; similar records over the next 10 could flip-flop the standings and have the Sox pull ahead.

My pal Albert likes to say that rooting for the Red Sox is a vain and hopeless pursuit because the Red Sox try to parry and thrust along with all of the Yankees' moves and they're still not good enough to beat the Yankees. Steinbrenner was right, though: the Yankees are the City of New York's problem. Boston's 8-5 record against the team that broke Scrooge MacDuck's bank vault? 8-5. No problem.

Indie rock and baseball

Had hoped to post more this month -- I've had a post on what the Dodgers' deadline moves mean for the pitching staff for the rest of the season floating around my head for the past week -- but you know how it goes in the world of blogging. Personal life always gets in the way. Rough week. Anyway, this is what folks in the "industry" like to call "filler" -- a little stop-gap post to keep the juices flowing until I can sit down and get, like, thoughtful and shit.

Since I've spent the past week doing nothing but listening to CDs (it's a job and a lifestyle, I guess), I've been thinking a lot about a 7" record I picked up in college by Barbara Manning called The Baseball Trilogy. I think it's out of print at the moment, which is a pity. Manning is a huge baseball fan: the cover of her record One Perfect Green Blanket depicts and refers to a baseball diamond and Manning named her longtime band SF Seals in honor of Joltin' Joe DiMaggios very first pro team. The Baseball Trilogy, in particular, is a real treat: I have a soft spot for it because she devotes one of the songs to my favorite ball player of all time.

Just got word from my "sources" that noted crank Steve Albini (the guy that produced, er, recorded Nirvana and the Pixies and...everything) TiVos "Baseball Tonight" while he's in the studio and watches it obsessively. That didn't surprise me too much, when I recalled the Albini's band Shellac did a baseball-themed tour in support of their 1994 record At Action Park. This one got me, though: Gerard Cosloy, proprietor of Matador Records, has been working incognito on a sports blog with a heavy baseball emphasis. Interesting in hearing what the guy who signed Liz Phair and Pavement and Cat Power has to say about Steve Kline or the latest foibles of the Mets? You betcha.

More fun with the OBR

Nothing more to add to the topic of OBR 9.01(c), but no discussion of the Official Baseball Rulebook would be complete without digging into OBR 8.02( b) -- especially after Julian Tavarez got booted from a game for his very dirty hat. Hey, what's on that hat anyway? Could it be pine tar...? Tavarez denies it, of course, and says that it's simply dirt from him touching the cap after each pitch. But the article I linked to has umpire crew chief Joe West saying that Tavarez and Tony LaRussa "admitting" that it was pine tar. Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon is no bad guy for calling him out on it -- Bobby Cox and Larry Bowa have made the same complaints this season -- and it ain't like he's the first guy to fuck with his pitches.

OBR 8.02 (b) doesn't get employed that much either, but it sure breeds controversy when it does. Here's the full 8.02 rule for context:

The pitcher shall not…(a) (6) deliver what is called the "shine" ball, "spit" ball, "mud" ball or "emery" ball. The pitcher, of course, is allowed to rub the ball between his bare hands. PENALTY: For violation of any part of this rule 8.02 (a) (2 to 6) the umpire shall: (a) Call the pitch a ball, warn the pitcher and have announced on the public address system the reason for the action. (b) In the case of a second offense by the same pitcher in the same game, the pitcher shall be disqualified from the game…(e) The umpire shall be sole judge on whether any portion of this rule has been violated.

And the billowy structure of the rule extends to anything a pitcher might have on his person or in his possession -- basically, any foreign substance is cause for immediate ejection. Consider Expos starter Zach Day, who got booted from a game last year after it was discovered that he had used krazy glue to cover a blister on his pitching hand. The bone of contention with the Day example last year was whether he was actually trying to put anything on his pitches with a substance that's sold on the basis of his quick-drying properties. Probably not; pitchers putting glue on their fingers/hands to cover sores/cuts is a common enough practice. But someone on the field complained, prompting a decision from the umpire crew, forcing the invocation of OBR 8.02(b). And if you don't agree with that decision, our old phantom friend OBR 9.01(c), justifies the ruling just as well.

In Julian Tavarez's case, the fact that he's such a sensitive guy probably doesn't help.

Five-finger discount, man

I missed it the first time around on the ESPN homepage, but just discovered that Tim Kurkijan wrote a fine overview on the art of stealing signs, including interviews with Jimmy Leyland and Paul Molitor and yet another hilarious Rickey Henderson anecdote. Tom Candiotti wrote a companion piece from the pitcher's perspective, but I haven't had a chance to compare and contrast; if anyone has ESPN Insider access, lemme know.

This article from the August 2002 issue of Baseball Digest delves more deeply into the ethics of stealing signs. And Paul Dickson wrote a whole book on the subject called The Hidden Language of Baseball, which looks like a must-read. So: legal or no? Hadn't considered it much before, though I know there's nothing specific in the Official Baseball Rulebook that covers this area. The only red flag the rulebook raises is OBR 9.01(c): Each umpire has authority to rule on any point not specifically covered in these rules. I'm guessing that this rule hasn't been enforced in regards to stealing signs, but I think it's so strange in principle: it offers umpires an opportunity to be the moral arbiters on anything that isn't explicitly covered within the rulebook AND a perfect escape clause should they run into any trouble.

All Greek to me

Haven't watched a lick of the Olympics yet, though I was already aware that the American team got downed by Mexico in a qualifying tournament in November and won't be participating in Athens -- the reason Roger Clemens is in an Astros uniform right now. You can't count Cuba out, but Japan ought to be the favorite for the gold medal after narrowly failing to capture a Bronze in 2000: Japanese professional baseball is on virtual hiatus this month and the Olympic team's now stocked with the best of the best with an all-pro line-up. Remember, the Japanese national team destroyed the Americans during the last MLB goodwill tour of Japan. Canada has a fair shot at something shiny, too.

Former Mets manager Davy Johnson (who's helping coach the Dutch team this year) was pretty upset about the exclusion of the U.S. team during this CNN/SI interview: "We're the leaders in pro baseball and you'd love have the U.S. players in it...It's kind of sad."

Fair enough, but them's the breaks. And the Greek team (who gained an automatic berth as the Olympic host) might as well be the American team. Organized baseball in Greece is a reasonably new development, and the country's still toying with an amateur league; in a funky twist, U.S. players claiming Greek ancestry were invited to join the team as ringers and only two members of the final squad are Greeks actually living in Greece. Of course, invite the Americans to join your squad and you've got to be prepared for a doping scandal: two members of the team have already tested positive for banned substances. And there was some danger that the Greek team wouldn't be able to make it back to Greece from a shortage of funds. And don't forget that the team's original manager died and had to be replaced.

And baseball doesn't exactly breed the fanatical devotion of, say, soccer: you're not going to see people waking up early or staying out late to go to the local sports bar and go to work all bleary-eyed and mealy-mouthed just to catch a match. You might tune in to the final medal match on August 25th and the respectable time of 1:00pm eastern, but after a series of tournament games at 3:30am and 4:30am, why bother?

Looks like our swim teams are pretty decent, though.

The Ken Griffey, Jr. Timeline

2/6/05: Kicked in groin by enraged fantasy baseball team owner who fell out of the money during the 2004 season resulting in minor bruising and loss of dignity.

3/1/05: Strains right hamstring in charity kickball event, misses all of spring training.

3/6/05: Allergic reaction to cortisone shot.

6/1/05: Chafes skin from overly starched uniform in first game back.

7/15/05: Tears right hamstring once again after All-Star break, out for season.

9/27/05: Hamstring replaced in world's first human hamstring transplant.

12/24/05: Gets food poisoning from fruitcake that Davy Concepcion gave to father on Christmas Day, 1975.

6/1/06: Long-rumored trade for Phil Nevin is completed during Cincinnati-San Diego match. Both players lost for season after game after simultaneously tearing rotator cuffs by giving each other a hi-five on the walk to the other dugout.

9/7/06: Accidentally sits on piping hot churro while watching NLCS from stands, sears left thigh

1/15/07: Takes son to offseason vacation at Disneyland. Enters Hall of Presidents and is actually shot with animatronic bullet by Alexander Hamilton statue.

6/1/07: Leads all players in home runs during months of April + May. Excessive praise from the press requires Joe Morgan's lips to be surgically removed from his butthole.

7/8/07: Late-night meal at Jack-in-the-Box requires quarantine for smallpox, ends season.

10/1/07: Begins to feel violent, irrepressible impulses. Sealed records reveal hamstring donor to have been serial murderer convicted to death in 2005.

11/1/07: Team physicians concoct plan to "rebuild him and make him stronger," replace evil hamstring with bionic hamstring.

2/06/08: Gets fitted for orthotics to compensate for limp from bionic hamstring.

4/9/08: Imbalance from orthotics and bionic hamstring aggravate vertigo.

7/1/08: Spirits from Native American burial ground under house angered by poor fantasy league baseball team position, curse him with insomnia.

8/30/08: Finishes season leading league in HBP after getting beaned approximately 117 times after falling asleep at plate.

10/22/08: Officially retires from MLB

7/23/13: Hoists Cooperstown plaque high in the air while exclaiming "Holy shit, I can't believe I held on this long!" during first-ballot Hall of Fame induction, placed on disabled list for entire body sprain.

....welcome back, kid.

J'accuse!

I want to recant something I wrote way back in May when I was lightly sparring with a non-plussed post my homey Gobo wrote on the proposed MLB/ Spider-Man tie-in that got squashed after much public outcry. Gobo's point was that stuff like this might make economic sense as a way of keeping ticket prices down -- and that it's already happening in other professional leagues throughout the world anyway. Here's what I wrote then:

But there's a huge, huge disconnect between what happens off and on the field within the microcosm of the professional sports area -- you could (with some effort) tune out the advertising that's all around you and simply concentrate on what's happening on the field, though that's an impossibility if your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man has left his sticky fingers all over 1st, 2nd and 3rd base...I don't like the idea of paying 20 bucks to see a game and having to be subjected to MLB teams padding their coffers in such an overt and repellent way.

Here I was two months ago, accusing Gobo of making a reductive argument -- and then something happened at the White Sox game last night that totally blew my argument out of the water. See, I'm totally inured to stuff like the "Cingular Wireless Call to the Pen" -- before US Cellular grabbed the naming rights to the stadium, Cingular actually paid money to have an annoying cell phone ring pipe through the speakers whenever a pitcher got the hook. Fine. And the Connie's Pizza race (which, I should point out, is always more popular than the game on the field)? Yeah, ok.

But they actually projected a fucking advertisement for Frosted Flakes on the jumbotron last night, in which Tony the Tiger led a group of young children on a training regimen, set to a jingle with a throbbing, hypnotic pulse. Nevermind the fact that the phrase "You can be a Tiger!" should never be uttered outside of Commerica Park -- Tony the Tiger is assembling his own Hitler Youth Brigade! An advertisement on the jumbotron? Not even tangentially related to baseball? Boo. Forget what I said -- bring on the advertising on the bases.

On the other hand, my companions Mark A. and Shawn (well, mostly Mark) were surprised to find out that US Cellular leads all parks in home runs this season. Yep, US Cellular even has a slight edge on Coors Field: teams have combined for 178 home runs on Chicago's South Side, as opposed to 176 in the oxygen-deprived Colorado air. Dunno what's doing it -- though air seems to circulate strangely in US Cellular -- but balls are leaping off bats at an amazing rate. Joe Crede, Carlos Lee and Paul Konerko all hit commanding blasts into the outfield stands last night; Da Sox now have six regulars (not including monsters Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez, mind you) with 14+ home runs on the season, a line-up that compares very favorably to the Yanks' $200 million albatross.

Ham 'n' eggs

Celebrated Greg Maddux's 300th career victory with a late lunch of ham and eggs at the local diner, or maybe it was the other way around and Mr. Maddux just wanted to make my lunch special. Either way, the win and the lunch were one and the same: a workmanlike creation that sits ok and gets the job done. Nothing special. No frills. 83 pitches and a couple of close calls -- Maddux had a little too much grease on pitches thrown to Edgardo Alfonzo and A.J. Pierzynski in the 3rd inning.

But Maddux gets the notch in his belt; he's now the first National League pitcher to reach the milestone since Steve Carlton did in 1983. Did it almost as fast as Roger Clemens, too -- in his 594th career start -- and it'll be a long time before we see another 300 game winner in the bigs. The next-closest pitcher, Tom Glavine, has 259 career victories -- but he's 38 and has only won a combined 17 games in his last two seasons. Glavine has won 20 or more games in a season 5 times in his career; he'd have to do it twice in a row to go the distance. Randy Johnson's 40 and still has 241 career victories -- and is also coming off a career-low 2003 win total.

Sure, plenty of 300-gamer Hall of Famers -- Sutton, Seaver, Niekro, Perry -- have pitched reasonably effectively beyond 40, but Maddux's career is pretty special. Of course, no one's preparing a ticker-tape parade through the city or anything like that because everyone expected him to get there and the Cooperstone plaque was etched years ago. But I'd be awed to see anyone reach 300 again in my lifetime, not that more careers in the vein of Jim Palmer are anything to sneeze at. S'ok, too.

No scrubs

Generally speaking, it's just like Left Eye, Chili and T-Boz said: I don't want no Cubs, a Cub is a guy that can't get no love from me. Don't like 'em, never will -- and the longer I stay in Chi-town, the more tired I get of constantly looking at their dead-beat pinstriped asses. But I'm genuinely feeling sorry for Todd Wellemeyer this week, because he got demoted to AAA Iowa to open a roster spot for rehabbing n'er-do-well Ryan Dempster. Wellemeyer hurt his chances this year by going on the DL with a right groin strain, but did everything right since his return. In limited work this season, he has shown flashes of brilliance:

12 g/ 16ip/ 11h/ 4r/ 14bb/ 18k/ 10.13 k/9 /1-0 W-L/ .196 BAA/ 1.56 WHIP/ 2.25 ERA

I've highighted the trouble spots -- walks and ratio -- but everything else is solid for the small sample size. And I'd like to add the caveat that he pitched a lot of junk innings, because sparing work didn't let him get into a groove and he just wasn't Dusty Baker's go-to guy. Tough call, but the guy Baker kept in his place, Jon Leicester endeared himself as the Cubs best middle reliever in July with 2 wins and 2 holds. His seasonal stats in limited work are pretty good, too:

14 g/ 19.2ip/ 14h/ 4r/ 3bb/ 16k/ 7.32 k/9 / 3-0 W-L/ .194 BAA/ 0.86 WHIP/ 1.83 ERA

And besides the obvious edge in walks and ratio and wins, what the stats (at least the ones I've picked out to showcase) don't tell you is that Leicester has been a much more economical pitcher so far. Wellemeyer tossed 338 pitches in 16 innings for an average of 21.1 pitches per inning. Leicester threw 299 pitches over 19 2/3 innings for an average of 15.2 pitches per inning. It's a substantial enough difference that I don't doubt Baker's move. Wellemeyer does all his shopping at K-Mart, but Leicester comes correct with the pitch location.

There are, however, two-million reasons Ryan Dempster's back up in the majors. No idea how he'll work out -- he served up a hit and a walk in 2/3 of an inning in his first appearance since coming off the DL -- but the Cubs brass seems to think he'll be able to sub for LaTroy Hawkins to close out games. Well, actually: Dempster has a 5.00+ ERA in 964 career innings -- enough of a sample size to determine, unequivocally, that he absolutely blows. And Dempster fancies himself to be a lot better than he has proven to be so far, mouthing off in the press about how he's not interested in pitching in that role. So yes, I'd much rather see Wellemeyer pitching in middle relief until he falls flat -- even if the rookie doesn't have the intangible of veteran hoo-doo mystique in his favor.

Fuzzy Math

I was planning on withholding comment on the flurry of late-July deadline deals entirely, since I played with matches and got burned by pronouncing Richard Hidalgo a turd. All the guy did in July was hit at a .294 clip (with an excellent 1.017 OPS!) with a home run every 10 at-bats. Of course, Hidalgo decided to turn it on and impress his suitors at a time where nearly everyone else on the team switched off the lights to take a long nap. It's not Hidalgo's fault that the team has gone 18-20 since his acquisition and hasn't moved an inch in the standings.

I wasn't off the mark, I think, with questioning the direction of the Mets in making this move -- especially when a significant payroll boost is concerned with a guy who isn't exactly Carlos Beltran. But I already said my piece on that, which is why I'll refrain from commenting on the Benson and Zambrano deals, except to say that a) the Mets didn't improve their team a lick, and b) gosh, I hope they loose money hand over fist this season.

The thing I'm having trouble wrapping my head around is all of the Dodgers moves at the deadline. There's no doubt that the Marlins improved themselves with their moves. Jayson Stark anoints The Fish as the biggest winners in his latest column, and I'm in complete agreement with his sentiment. They addressed their two biggest needs with catcher Paul LoDuca (replacing fast-starter Mike Redmond) and top-notch reliever Guillermo Mota, a guy who has the tools to fill in for Benitez while he's on the disabled list. Ismael Valdez doesn't offset the lost of Brad Penny, but Heep Sop Choi for Juan Encarnacion (who might turn it around in the familiar confines of Pro Player) is mostly a wash, and the Marlins can go far enough with the front four in their rotation. Plus, the Dodgers gave them money to take LoDuca off their hands. Wha....?

I'm going to side with Stark's view -- that GM Paul DePodesta tried to fit too many puzzle pieces into place at the deadline -- of the Dodgers as the deadline's biggest belly-floppers, as well. No Randy Johnson, no Charles Johnson, Howard Johnson isn't coming out of retirement...DePodesta got his johnson caught in his own zipper. The Beane school of three-way trades really only works when you get all parties together with a conditional agreement, and there was no way L.A. would give up what it needed to get to maybe kinda sorta get The Big Unit in Dodger Blue. Steve Finley's an upgrade over Encarnacion, no doubt, and Penny's playoff experience will be great if the Dodgers hold on until October.

But any team that's trotting out Hideo Nomo (3-10, 8.06 era, 14 starts) and/or Kazuhisa Ishii (1.50 whip, 21 starts) on a regular basis needs someone to pitch the 8th. And if Peter Gammons could stop for a second to wipe that brown spot off his nose, he'd realize how scary it is that the Dodgers just sent situational lefty Tom Martin and unhittable flamethrower Guillermo Mota (who led all Dodgers relievers in innings pitched) packing.

So Darren Dreifort stepped into the role on Saturday...and blew the save. He acquitted himself yesterday by picking up the save after Eric Gagne tossed three scoreless innings, but damn, it's a leap of faith to put so much trust in a guy with a bionic elbow. I like Duaner Sanchez a lot, but it's not like the Dodgers have a deep well of live arms like, say, the Cubs (more on them later this week) to throw out there. Gagne hasn't pitched 3 innings since 2002; if he's Superman, the Dodgers rotation is green kryptonite.

Mea maxima culpa

We've slashed prices on everything at the end of the month! Get a gently-worn 2004 blog at a discount price before the new 2005 model rolls in! This blog is worth $1.15 per share on the open market! No serious offer will be refused! Act now and you can have my 7th place rotisserie team thrown in as an extra bonus! I'll send you a fabulous set of steak knives! You can have the Omar Moreno commemorative statue that my father just gave me! The 'fro sculpt would make Oscar Gamble green with envy!

And if you act right now, Mr. Anthony Darrell Womack, I will even throw in an apology. Because after watching Braves SS Rafael Furcal misplay two more grounders (pushing his error total for the season to 18!), I know understand that I willfully underestimated what you've done for the Cardinals this season. I know that shortstop is a much harder position defensively (Jack Wilson, who consistently makes amazing plays, has 10 errors this year), but your 8 errors on the season isn't terrible. All that shit I said about hyperbole when I dissected that AP Wire profile line-by-line? I was straight up hating. And I clearly owe you the aforementioned Omar Moreno statue, because I just realized the strangest thing: you and he are exactly the same player.

We believe

Mr. Clutch Rob Mackowiak shined as the Pirates rolled to a 8-4 victory over the Braves tonight, proof that his wife doesn't need to be delivering babies for him to come up big at the plate. Still, Atlanta catcher Johnny Estrada -- who was his usual monster self in the batting box -- ought to have been voted the game's #1 star for a series of teeth-clenching gaffes that sealed the victory for the Pirates. The seventh inning, in particular, was one of the strangest baseball things I've ever had the opportunity to see in person:

Paul Byrd gives up two singles to Bobby Hill and Abraham Nunez and gets yanked in favor of reliever Kevin Gryboski. Kendall gets on base with a clean single. Jack Wilson comes up next with a dismal grounder, but SS Rafael Furcal bungles the play (and gets charged with the inning's first error) as Hill scores and the bases are loaded. Up next: Rob Mackowiak. A chorus of fans chanting "grand slam! grand slam!," praying for some of his patented late-inning heroics. And then Mackowiak drives a fastball to left field. It's on the warning track! It could be his third slam of the season! But...it drops down for what looks like a double. Nunez scores, Kendall scores. Then Wilson slides across the plate and Mackowiak moves to third while Estrada mishandles the relay throw, and then -- miraculously -- the ball pops out of Estrada's hands towards the Pirates' dugout and Mackowiak scores.

Final damage: Estrada gets charged with one error (he also allows a run to score on a passed ball later in the 8th) and Mackowiak gets three rbi with his not-really-an-inside-the-park-home-run-but-too-strange-to-be-an-average-double trip to the plate. To quote Family Guy Peter Griffin: "It was freakin' sweet." I should also mention that the Pirates are now 48-50 for the season, hovering around the marks of "wild-card contenders" like Houston, the Mets and the Marlins. All this after falling to 15 games under .500 just a month ago. July has totally been Pittsburgh's bitch. 

Hate the players, love the game

Hmm. Three posts that reference the Astros, Cubs and the Cardinals all in a row, and my Pirates bias has been exercised more than I'd care to admit. I'm in a NL Central kinda mood with a trip to  the eighth wonder of the world in my near future. Should I tune into WKRP and try to make a clean sweep? Nah...wouldn't want to spill a precious drop of virtual ink on the Big Red Boredom Machine.

In the meantime, meet my new favorite writer. So: working for peanuts or selling peanuts for work?

Slow news day

You may have missed it yesterday, sandwiched in between workmanlike headlines that read "Ruth's Historic Bat on Display in Cleveland" [about an upcoming auction of one of the Babe's bats] and "Big Tex: Not an All-Star, but huge for the Rangers," [about Mark Texiera's fine season] but occasionally something interesting seeps through the ESPN news wire that doesn't get any play on the front page of the site. In this case, I'm thinking about this AP News Wire softball, which discusses how valuable free agent pick-up Tony Womack has been to the Cardinals this season.

The unattributed author goes to great lengths to rationalize and explain -- and at times, offer apologies for -- Womack's stats this season. This isn't a criticism of Womack per se; in truth, he's been a lucky pick-up, a bargain, and probably LaRussa's best option in the lead-off slot. But the language in the piece is a little loaded:

Despite a 2-for-26 slump since the All-Star break, he is batting .299 with a slap stroke and a patient eye that has produced an on-base percentage of .351.
 
Uh oh. Is Womack falling apart? Like a lot of speedy guys, he always catches fire before the All-Star break and trails off after. The OBP is wayyyyy better than career average (and better than a lot of the guys who bat behind him), but I'd be nervous if the Cardinals' ultimate fate was tied into Womack's, ahem, patient eye.

Womack got off to a blazing start with three steals in the opener and seven by April 20. He said his modest count since is irrelevant, blaming the decline on pitchers' quicker moves to the plate.

Ok, well, Womack has only had 7 steals in the last three months. No one on the Cards is stealing all that much -- it's not the game they're playing now, though LaRussa could revert to a traditional hit-and-run if he chose. His success rate is around .800, which is fine, but "quicker moves to the plate"? That's strange. Womack is on pace for 24 steals, which is consistent with the numbers he put up in his last two seasons with Arizona, and what he might've amassed in a full-time role last season. The guy's also 34, which is past prime for a break-out season, suggesting his fastest days are behind him.

Womack said [he's] getting stronger "by the week" and he's determined not to let it affect his game, even though he's bounced a lot of double-play relays to first.
 
Defense is a concern, which is why the Pirates dumped him on Arizona for next to nothing, and why Womack found himself in three unis last season. Womack's fielding percentage has always been below league average, and he has 8 errors on the season -- not so good. I'm also willing to bet that some of Albert Pujols' 7 errors relate to Womack's misplays in the field.

Cardinals fans seem to have eased off of Womack's case since the start of the season, because Womack has played a huge role in keep the House of Cards together. Still, he's a part-time player exceeding expectations in a full-time role. I see "Cecil Espy," while Tony LaRussa sees "The ESPYs." Dusty Baker, take note: he could've been yours. Watch out for falling concrete.

New boss = same as old boss

The folks in Chicago are almost ready to give up on the Cubs; Mark Prior's protracted -- and very mysterious -- arm fatigue is a (no pun intended) sore point, and no one on the team seems to be able to stay healthy for long. Barring an acquisition of Nomar Garciaparra or, more likely, Orlando Cabrera (rumored, but he's been awful this season) to shore up the middle infield, it's not looking like the Cubbies will have a repeat of last season's excitement. Oh, the ballpark is still crowded as hell and tensions run high whenever the Cardinals are in town, but as of this writing, they're 10 games behind St. Louis in the enigmatic NL Central, playing a game of one steps forward, one step back while sandwiched between surprise teams Milwaukee and Cincinnati. And maybe it's just the native Pittsburgher in me talking here, but the Bucs have been the best team in the NL Central in the month of July and, well, the Cubs are the only team in the division who don't look like they're trying.

Over on the other side of the city, just south of Chinatown and west of Mayor Daley's palatal manor, the city's red-headed stepchildren the White Sox are in the midst of a pennant race. The AL Central's pretty mediocre, too: here in the Midwest, we don't get excited about anything too easily. It's frustrating pinning your allegiances on the Sox sometimes; no one expects the Cubs to do anything in this lifetime as long as the ghost goat is reinforcing the curse and braying behind the ivy. But the Sox -- well, they've had three 1st place finishes since 1993 (compared to the Cubs only one last year) and -- though looks can be deceiving -- have finished in second place six other times. So the talent has always been there to, at least, tease.

This year, though, it's a great pennant race -- and I'd implore anyone reading this in Chicago to forget about the Scrubs (they also have beer in U.S. Cellular Field) and throw support to the White Stockings. They need it, and they're actually in a dog fight with Minnesota for the lead.  As of the current writing, the Twins are 0.5 games up in the standings; no doubt, next week's Mon-Tue-Wed series in Chi will have a leveling effect.  Still, some problems: Magglio Ordonez is still out and Big Frank's down for two months with a foot injury -- that's the two biggest guns out of the line-up and you've got problems. Chicago's 9-9 since acquiring Freddy Garcia (who's 2-1 with a 3.38 era for July so far), too -- an indicator that they've got the pitching for the playoffs, but need a hitting boost to float through August and September.

To that end, Kenny Williams recently dipped into his endless bag of (generally mediocre) pitching prospects and reacquired gloomy gus Carl Everett (who hasn't reacquired his stroke) for some dude named Gary Majewski and the tallest player in major league history, Jon Rauch. Montreal needed to clear Everett's $7.5 mil/ 2 yr contract off the books, and all of the Sox players seem to be excited about the acquisition -- but what to realistically think about the team's chances from here on out? Three factors seem to be in Chicago's favor: first, Minnesota has a surplus of talent to reconfigure the team with trades, but the front office has zero balls. Next, the White Sox have the best W-L record in their division (16-8 to Minnesota's 25-22). And the other intangible? Scheduling.

ESPN's Buster Olney on the White Sox: "Twenty-six of their last 74 games are against sub-.500 teams, and eight of their last 11 games are against the Royals -- a chance for a late-season feast."

ESPN's Buster Olney on the Twins: "They have 35 games left against teams with records of .500 or better, second most in AL, and fewest home games remaining among AL contenders."

I love me some Minnesota, too. Ron Gardenhire is the most underrated manager in MLB, and the team has an impressive talent pipeline from the minors. Still, this year it's the first round of the playoffs for the Sox. I think. I hope.  Crack open the magic Old Style and make it happen, Ozzie.

Smackdown!
 
Jimmy Williams became the second MLB manager to get the ax this season, after Arizona skipper Bob Brenly got the boot earlier in July. In both cases, additional changes were made to support and justify the moves: pitching coach Chuck Kniffin and bench coach Robin Yount (who resigned out of loyalty) joined Brenly on his extended vacation, while the Astros gave pitching coach Burt Hooton and hitting coach Harry Spilman their walking papers, too. It's a step up from the drastic purge last year, when 6 guys faced the firing squad before the All-Star break -- leading to Jack McKeon's appointment and magnificent finish with the Marlins...and not a whole lot else.  Unsatisfactory records prompted the Williams and Brenly moves, though I think impatience and unreasonable expectations had a lot more to do with it than managerial incompetence.
 
In the case of Brenly, he compiled a 303-262 record (and tell me that doesn't bear an eerie resemblance to knuckleballer Phil Niekro's career numbers) in 3 1/2 seasons with the Diamondbacks, including a World Series victory in 2001 and a playoff run in 2002. Brenly didn't do much in 2003 with a 3rd place finish and seemed to get called on the carpet for a series of questionable calls, but success spoils you, doesn't it? Richie Sexson's season-ending injury (after the D-backs traded a handful of major-league level players to Milwaukee) really signaled the death knell for Brenly: the team just couldn't put it together this year and puttered to a 29-50 record at the time of his dismissal. Really quite bad. And managers almost never have the luxury of working through a slump. Well, actually, there is an exception to that rule -- but we'll get there in a second.
 
In the case of Williams, he replaced Larry Dierker, whose Houston teams made the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons as manager and got dumped in a year (2001) the team went 93-69, simply because he couldn't light a fire under his players' asses to get beyond the first round of the playoffs. Williams was not the guy to replace Dierker, especially if the agenda in Houston was to go out and grab the jewel-crusted World Series ring. His Toronto (1986-88) and Boston (1997-2001) put together respectable enough records, but never made it past 2nd place in their respective divisions. Except, of course, when Williams was fired mid-season in 1989 and Cito Gaston engineered a turn-around and top finish for the Jays. Williams isn't the guy to take you to the playoffs -- he's the guy you fire to motivate the players to get there. 
 
Back to the exception to the rule -- which I like to call the Phil Garner Rule: managers will have the luxury of working through a slump if there is an awareness that they don't have the resources to succeed.  Garner, a universally well-liked guy, went 563 -617 in eight seasons with the Brewers between 1992-1999, with only one season (his first) above .500. Add two more in Detroit in 2000 and 2001 when -- this is very important, so I'm going to italicize it -- the teams had no reasonable expectation of contending and Garner cruised to 3rd and 4th place finishes. I love Lloyd McClendon so much that his name's the subject of this blog, but do you ever wonder why he's been allowed to continue to manage the Pirates this long? The Phil Garner Rule, of course. The same rule has just been invoked by Arizona; Brenly's replacement Al Pedrique is 2-9 since taking over the job and it would take a minor miracle for the Diamondbacks not to punt on the season entirely and move into rapid rebuilding mode. At the very least, Randy Johnson and Steve Finley will be gone -- so we know Pedrique's job will be safe for awhile.
 
Oddly enough, the Phil Garner Rule even applies to the hiring of Phil Garner as the interim manager in Houston -- even though there's an emphasis on winning NOW, a ton of older players on 1 year contracts on the team and Drayton McLane rented Carlos Beltran expressly for a pennant drive.  See, if Garner can't lead the slumping Astros to the playoffs, it's not his fault. He won't be back as the Astros manager, but it certainly won't be his fault. And if he puts it all together and kicks the Astros in the high gear, he's a light version of Jack McKeon; the media is beating the "Garner was saddled with bad teams before, lets see what he can do with talent" drum an uncomfortable amount. Not sure what's up in Houston; between the Killer Bs -- Biggio, Beltran, Bagwell and Berkman -- and the Clemens/Miller/Pettite/Oswalt rotation, they should be able to stomp on the competition.  I think people certainly want Garner to succeed -- we feel sorry for his Milwaukee-Detroit experiences because he's a likeable guy and a player's manager (as is Pedrique, who was well loved in AAA Tuscon). And maybe, if Prior's elbow doesn't heal and Milwaukee and Cincy stop surprising and the Cardinals stop snorting fancy pixie dust to get that high in the standings, Phil Garner might even be an exception to his own rule.