Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Fresh meat

The NL Rookie of the Year race just got interesting. No one's come close to having a season like Henry Rowengartner had for the Cubs in, oh, '93. But this season, it has been neck-and-neck between Pirates OF Jason Bay (The Outfielder Formerly Known As The Brian Giles Trade Throw In) and Padres SS Khalil Greene (The Only MLB Player Who Practices The Bah'ai Faith). Jason Bay missed nearly two months to open the season -- but collected Rookie of the Month honors in June and July -- which some pundits decided was enough to disqualify him from consideration. But, oh wait -- Khalil Greene broke a finger on Monday night and now he's out for the rest of the season. So injuries took their toll on both seasons.

Here's Khalil Greene's season numbers:
484ab /66r/ 132h/ 15hr/ 65bi/ 4sb/ .273ba/ .349obp/ .446slg/ .795ops

And here's Jason Bay through Wednesday 9/14/04:
350ab/ 55r/ 103h/ 23hr/ 72bi/ 3sb/ .294ba/ .372obp/ .571slg/ .943ops

I don't think we even need to consider the 50 or so at-bats (and handful of home runs and rbi) Bay will have over the rest of the season to do a point-by-point comparison. 300 abs is all that should be needed to qualify for consideration -- that's plenty to make a mark. And isn't it odd to see the same folks who rushed to anoint Dontrelle Willis (who came up later in the season than Brandon Webb) last year's NL ROY using the same criteria to argue that Greene would be a better choice?

Bay's not flawless, mind you: he strikes out at a much greater clip than Greene, has been thrown out stealing more, and has hit into more double-plays. Fair enough. Defense gets thrown out there a lot as a reason why Greene's the superior candidate, and of course he's playing a much harder defensive position, and he's made some Sports Center highlight reel plays this season, but check it out: Greene has 20 errors on the season and a fielding percentage of .965. Mr. Bay (in half of the "chances") has exactly one error and a fielding percentage of .995. Translation: he does not suck in the field.

Beyond that, the leads in all power categories should nail the door shut. Especially that .943 ops -- not Barry Bonds ungodly, but amazing. Hammer says: u can't touch that. I mean, that's it. End of story. Jason Bay has been the most consistent performer on the Pirates this year; Greene is...playing a role. Better than Ramon Vasquez, sure. But he's no Jason Bay.

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