Hook, Line and Stinker

If the Nats faced Jorge Julio every night, we'd have the start of a dynasty on our hands. Dunno what Freddi Gonzalez sees in Julio, but he's obviously overvaluing "veteran presence" in the Marlins closer juggling game; five arms have recorded saves for the Fish this year and any of them would be superior options to Julio or overhyped arm Taylor Tankersley. Gonzalez should've left Tankersley in the game to pitch himself out of a jam, but better judgement doesn't always prevail at one o'clock in the morning when you're racing to finish a six hour game that should've been over three hours ago. Stars of the game in order:

1) Divine Providence
2) 3 Hour Rain Delay
3) Ryan Zimmerman

Bump Zimmerman up to 1st if you're feeling generous. His 9th inning walk-off grand slam is the reason the Nats put together back-to-back victories for the first time all season. Zimmerman has not been seeing good pitches this season with no protection in the line-up, but he crushed it in dramatic fashion. Time to add RFK to the list of venues for the Shakespeare in Washington Festival? Maybe not, but it feels good to get a break from The Comedy of Errors once in awhile. Some of the team's moms are purportedly appearing in a pre-game ceremony to commemorate Mother's Day this afternoon. They have a legit chance of sweeping the Marlins and taking the entire series. Unbelievable. And if not, they'll have plenty of shoulders to cry on.

We Will Rebuild Them, and Make Them Stronger

Time to clean house and send the veterans to the glue factory. The Nats can't win much, but they can't win at all with Brian Schneider in the line-up. The guy had a dreadful season behind the plate in '06, but a catching upgrade apparently wasn't in the plans for '07: the Nats went into the year with Schneider as the undisputed starter and Rule 5 pick Jesus Flores as the back-up. I want to see more of Flores and less of Schneider and much, much less of his butt-ugly catcher's mask. Who does this dude think he is - Olaf Kolzig? If history repeats itself, Schneider will rejuvinate himself with some other team in '08. Hey, it worked for Michael Barrett.

Having Schneider catch games while the team eats bad contracts isn't hurting the Nats, though. Handing the ball to Chad Cordero in the 9th, when the Nats actually find themselves with a save opportunity, might be. More specifically, it isn't helping Cordero's trade value. The Nats totally should have sold high (does no one in management have a fantasy league team on the side?) when the Red Sox were swinging on Cordero's nuts. Cordero looks shaky out there right now; he's not getting enough chances to practice his art -- and mowing 'em down in the 9th is definitely an art. My gut says not to trust him at all; the problem is that the team doesn't have a hot hand to pass the ball to. Yikes. What happens when the team trades Cordero for pennies and pocket lint after All-Star Break? Maybe Jon Rauch is better suited to a set-up role; maybe they're waiting for the return of Luis Ayala.

It's Only Funny Until Someone Loses An Eye

There's losing and there's losing with dignity; one of these things is reflected in the standings, and the other stays in the hearts and the minds of fans. To the Nats credit, they managed to hang in there for 4 innings before sinking into a predictable rut -- Matt Chico escaped with one earned run on his line thanks to some appaling defense by Dmitri Young and Ron Belliard. Not that tossing 100 pitches in less than 5 innings is anything to take great pride in, but the shit didn't hit the proverbial fan until journeyman reliever Ray King entered in the 8th.

I think his name is Ray King 'cause the other team starts raking when he's on the mound. 2/3 of an inning, 3 walks and 4 earned runs eanred King last night's "King Goat" award. Prize: an inflamed shoulder. Anything to escape another nightmare like that. Here's the deal with King: he seems like he has actually been a pretty reliable presence over the course of his career, but the stats don't tell the full story:

1) The guy gives up way too many free trips to first base
2) Dude blew 6 saves in 0 save opportunities for St. Louis in '05
3) King averaged 80 games, but less than 60 innings during his best years

He's the very definition of a "situational lefty," which, with the sad state of the Nats rotation, is a luxury the team can't afford right now. That set-up works great if you can guarantee 5-6 innings from each of your starters, but the Nats need to dump this guy in favor of a swingman or someone who can throw heat for more than 1/3 of an inning without worrying about boo-boos. And now Acta's letting him take up space on the active roster instead of sending him to the DL -- at least the Phillies have been active on the waiver wire to combat early season blahs.

They Don't Know...

For better or worse, I moved to DC in June 2005. During the height of Washington Nationals mania, I wandered into a falafel shop and the guy behind the counter started ribbing me incessantly for wearing a Pittsburgh Pirates baseball cap and inciting the rest of the patrons in line to talk trash. It was as if I wandered into a Bronx pizza joint decked out in Red Sox gear. The Nats team cast such a strange spell on the entire city, at least until mid-August; still, baseball returning to Washington was the story in MLB that year.

Nats fans, if there are any left, don't know what it's like to lose. Pirates fans know what it's like to lose; 14 years of watching terrible teams take the field is, in a word, sobering. For the Nationals, 2006 was pretty much a smoke screen: Alfonso Soriano carried that team on his back. This year will be the true test of patience. Of course, the team's already averaging about 40% capacity so far, but the hypothetical ceiling's low and the hypothetical bottom is sort of like an endless pit. After this weekend's humiliating series, there's no doubt the Nats know what it's like to lose in a spectacular fashion. Acta's squad went 0-30 with runners in scoring position until Austin Kearns stemmed the bleeding in the 8th inning of Sunday's game. Back-to-back 7-1 losses against the low end of Arizona's rotation, followed by Livan Hernandez disgracing his former teammates by taking a no-hitter into the 6th innings.

Philly is phucking things up in spectacular fashion to start the season, too; the Nats actually have competition for the honor of worst team in the division. Expect Philadelphia to heat up somewhat when it doesn't count. The team has averaged 85 wins over the last six seasons. It's what they do. As Philadelphia arches towards mediocrity, the Nats are on a fast track towards ignominious immortality. This, my friends, is destiny...rewritten as a cosmic joke.

Me and Julio Down By Navy Yard

3 shortstops in 3 games, and D'Angelo Jimenez receiving a quickie call-up from AAA: guess the Josh Wilson experiment was an abject failure. Yesterday, Manny Acta fielded a line-up with Felipe Lopez playing his natural position and Ron Belliard shifting back to his natural position as 2B. Felipe's fuss over manning short during the spring was the mustard on the shit sandwich of this offseason: let's not forget the other guy who threated a kindler, gentler "Operation Shutdown" during the '06 season. Washington's streak of consecutive innings of running behind was snapped at 26...barely. There'll be plenty of time for more Herculean feats of ineptitude as the season drags on, but for now, Jorge Julio -- the worst closer in baseball -- gave the Washington NoNotNows the thrill of a hollow victory with 1/3 of a disastrous inning. The Marlins traded Yusmero Petit for this dude? Wow. He sucks. Back to Acta, who keeps using the term "experimenting" to describe his lineup cards. The Reds are 2-1 with a team hobbled by injuries; Acta needs to get better about thinking creatively. Or, uh, thinking.

Lost and Naked in the City Again

See Screech. See Screech about to get slapped on the nuts after another dismal Nationals loss. See Screech hawking a homemade porno online to avoid foreclosure during the Nats 2008 season. Someone will have to take the fall, and Screech is the only Nationals mascot who doesn't have his picture in the National Portrait Gallery.

So maybe I was being a little hyperbolic in predicting a 0-162 season. That's Cleveland Spiders bad. The 2007 Washington Nationals are more like 1962 Mets bad. Ok, that's still too harsh: this year's Nats are, like, '63-65 Mets bad. This team will be lucky to take 60 games. The season's still young; after all, the Cardinals now sport the same 0-2 record and the Pirates are 2-0. But you know things are fucked when your star player (Ryan Zimmerman) is already giving interviews where he politely cautions fans to expect a whole lot o' losing going on. But what can you expect when your GM spent the entire offseason making sure that the minor league affiliates were fully-stocked with AAAA players?

Disheartening stat, courtesy ESPN.Com: Nats have been behind in every single inning they've played this season. Shawn Hill's crackerjack Livan Hernandez impression (spotting the other team 4 earned runs in the first inning) and the Keystone Kops defense didn't help. But that's actually Washington Generals bad.

First in war, first in peace, last in place

Well, let's put it this way: everything was over with the ceremonial home opener pitch last season. At least Mark Lerner had the good sense to bar members of the Bush administration from getting on the field yesterday afternoon. This time out, the Nats waited five innings before declaring the 2007 season a lost cause: local boy done good Ryan Zimmerman made a spectacular play to retire Dontrelle Willis early on, which was overshadowed by a routine warning track grab center fielder Nook Logan made before exiting the game -- the kind of catch that kept Jim Edmonds on Baseball Tonight highlight reels. The Running Man's got guts -- and a knack for freaky injuries. Logan's trip to the DL opens up two distinct scenarios: either spring over-achiever Chris Snelling gets a fighting chance as an everyday player, or final 25-man roster cut Kory Castro's stay in the minors will be mercifully short.

I dunno, I was sort of looking forward to seeing what Manny Acta sees in Logan, but he'll be back before April turns into May. As for Cristian Guzman, possibly gone for the rest of season: that 4-year/ $16.8 million contract looks REALLY bad right about now. Also: John Patterson really needs a month or so in long relief to get his groove back, especially after throwing batting practice for 3 2/3 innings. With this starting rotation (time to place bets on when Pedro Astacio gets the call up from AAA), the Nats just don't have that luxury. Still interested in finding out whether Shawn Hill and Matt Chico can build on promising spring stats and eager to see whether Felipe Lopez can swipe 40 bases, but the Nats current record projects to a 0-162 finish. That sounds about right.

No Time For Losers

Where's Pete Mackanin? The Tigers coaching staff is seeminly comprised of everyone else associated with 14 years of losing baseball in the 'burgh, including 3 of the last 4 skippers (Jim Leyland, Gene Lamont, this blog's namesake Lloyd McClendon) and a couple of guys who stuck around after the glow from the Bonds era wore off (Andy Van Slyke and Don Slaught). Likeable fellows, all. Throw in a resurgent Sean Casey and the spectral presence of an infamous Rule 5 loss (Chris Shelton), and you've got a whole lot of unhappy Pirates fans playing a game of "What If?"

But what works in Detroit -- excuse me: what makes the Tigers amazing in '06 -- would've amounted to another 66 win season in Pittsburgh. The key to this team, as has already been written everywhere and become a part of its mythology, is Mike Illitch's bold move with signing Pudge to a fat 4-year contract. The Tigers took a couple of players labeled as damaged goods (Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez), burned off some terrible contracts and got really lucky as the aging cornerstones (Dmitri Young) held value and some long-in-development prospects (Marcus Thames) finally found a groove. Plus, you can't touch that pitching staff: Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya on the 1-2, vaporizing memories of the Adam Bernero dark ages.

Won't be around to watch the first game of this World Series (in fact, I'll probably miss the whole thing), which sucks. It usually takes a few weeks for me to pull of the Pirates fan hat and trade up for the MLB fan hat after the regular season has ended. Which is to say: I never pay much attention to the respective League Championship Series but turn on a dime and bark like a rabid dog when its World Series time. Props to the Cardinals for going the distance against the hated Mets, but the Mets were smoke and mirrors after the All-Star Break. Detroit looks invinvible this year. 4-2 seems like a reasonable prediction. And fellas, send me some YouTube links for all of the highlight reel-worthy plays, a'ight?

What's wrong with this picture?

I'm back. Sort of. Real-world commitments are nipping at my heels and I haven't really been moved to pontificate on the subject of baseball this off-season. The World Baseball Classic has not put me in the mood, nor has Frank DeFord's usually reliable Wednesday-morning commentary on NPR's Morning Edition. DeFord's back to beating the drum on Barry Bonds and steroids -- his latest report calls for MLB to expel Bonds and cast out all cheaters. I was onyl on my first cup of coffee this morning, but I swear DeFord was invoking Lady MacBeth's "out, out damn spot" monologue on this morning's thinkpiece. Total histrionics.

Anyway, here's the new stadium design that the Washington Nationals unveiled during a press conference yesterday afternoon. At first glance, I don't like it -- for $611 million dollars, I'd think a firm could envision something a little more creative than this rehash of Milwaukee's ballpark. The idea here is that patrons will get a distinct view of the Washington Monument, with outfield sightlines penetrating towards the West of the city. But why not reorient it for a better view of the riverfront, which is one of the main calling cards of the parks in San Francisco and Pittsburgh? Basically, the Nationals will go from having the ugliest stadium (RFK, not really their fault) in MLB to having the ugliest new-school park in MLB (the White Sox can breathe a heavy sigh of relief). I feel a little bad for Anthony Williams and the city council, but the ownership situation needs to get squared away soon before the goodwill from '05 is erased. Because Jim Bowden just engineered the worst off-season of any team and the prospects of even a middle-of-the-pack finish look dreadful with that pitching staff.

Big ups to DMZ at U.S.S. Mariner for his recent scientific/ sabermetric study of the classic "Baseball Bugs" cartoon. He discussed Richard Feynman and wormholes and suggests probable causes for all of the myriad improbabilities in the cartoon world. The entire staff of that blog is currently writing circles around any of the baseball hobbyists, but that post is firing on all cylinders. Read it and weep.

Hallitosis

Langstaff has a pretty neat wrap-up of this year's Hall of Fame class over at Corsairs Affairs (formerly One Man Band). I'm pretty much in agreement with his ambivalent feelings towards Bruce Sutter and his picks for more deserving candidates (Goose Gossage, Bert Blyleven and Alan Trammell). I really wanted to see those three make the cut; I wouldn't be upset if Jim Rice was in the mix, too. None of the other folks on the ballot did much for me as HOF candidates. As Lang suggests, it's all about the split-finger fastball, which may or may not be asignificant enough innovation to merit includsion to the Hall. Sutter's Cy Young season is a nice line item on his resume, though by no means an arbiter of a reliever's ultimate worth: Hoyt Willhelm didn't have one, and he's in the Hall. Whereas fellow closer Mark Davis did get the hardware in his 1989 season, the only standout in an otherwise unremarkable career.

Maybe 8 excellent seasons (1976-82, 1984) is enough: Sutter tossed between 80-100 innings and had ERAs way below league average (his career ERA is a full point below league average, too). All this compares favoravly to, say, Mariano Rivera (who will still a better choice when all is said and done). On raw numbers alone, why not Lee Smith with 178 more saves over his career? I dunno. Over at Hardball Times, Aaron Gleeman takes a much more defiant stance and says "no way." I'd ignore the portion where he compares Sutter and Blyleven because it gets a little goofy: "Broken down to the most simplistic terms possible, would you rather have 4,970 innings of a 3.31 ERA [Blyleven] or 1,042 innings of a 2.83 ERA [Sutter]? Would you rather have 300 saves and 68 wins [Sutter] or 287 wins [Blyleven]?"

Gleeman's completely on point here, but his argument is strongest in the Sutter-to-Gossage comparison. Gossage has more saves, more innings, more wins, more win shares. It's a travesty that he's not already in the Hall. Goose could certainly help his cause by not being a total fucking douchebag about it, but maybe the incessant bitching and moaning about wussy modern-era closers is what saw his vote tally increase from 55% to 65% on this year's ballot. He'll make it in sooner rather than later. As will Jim Rice. Blyleven and Andre Dawson have decent shots if they can stay on the ballot long enough. Isn't this pretty much the M.O. with the hall voters: first- or second-ballot induction or you rot for 8-12 years? As for Alan Trammell, the bedrock of some terrible Tigers teams throughout the 1980s and 90s, I dunno what the voting committee is doing, but I'll try to talk about it at length in the next post. I'm still shaking cobwebs off.

Freakonomics

I haven't looked over the archive of posts from last December-January, but this is normally the time of year where I rant uncontrollably about the fallout from the Winter Meetings. Part of the reason I haven't updated this blog in six weeks is that I post all mapped out in my head about B.J. Ryan signing the richest deal ever for a closer and how that intersected with Jim Hendry's nuckin' futs middle relief acquisitions for the Cubs (Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre). The market for pitching, particularly relief, is disgusting this offseason.

But the free agent market always makes my wallet burn; I think I've been blowing the same sour notes since I was a baseball columnist in college over a decade ago. It doesn't really matter what's going on, whether Albert Belle is making $10 million a season or whatever, this kind of stuff has never sat well with me. And I've usually ended up taking an entirely reactionary, hot-button viewpoint of the inflated contracts and lauded teams for deals that never panned out, all of which gives me a sinking feeling that I'm not a particularly good judge of understanding the intersection of statistics and economics in the free market.

I'm better off explaining why Jeff Weaver and Matt Clement are exactly the same pitcher, and I may do just that in a subsequent post. It's weird how people keep drawing an analogy with the bullish market for housing: don't worry, people will come to their senses and things will level off. I can look out my window and see houses on my street, across from dark alleys where thugs work on their cars all day, with million dollar price tags. So what's an extra million or five in the realm of backloaded contracts and bonuses? And yet, the math doesn't quite work in my head, not when the Cardinals won't budge over $1 million a season for a second baseman or the Great Satan reports a loss of between $50-85 million in 2005.

Which is it: boom or bust?

Don't Stop Believin'



I'm still totally gay for the White Sox.

Black coat, white shoes, black hat, Cadillac

Hats off to Brandon Backe. I thought he was toast heading into Game 4, but he pitched the game of his life with seven shut-out innings. Textbook dominance -- he really seems to turn it on when the situation calls for it. I wish I could say the same for the rest of the Astros squad, who never really got into the game. Freddy Garcia and the Sox relievers kept painting the outside corners with two types of junk: high and low. And the Astros anemic line-up kept swinging and missing. Whiff, whiff, whiff.

It's tough to turn it on in the postseason. Just ask Barry Bonds. And it sorta sucks that Clemens, Bagwell and Biggio -- the latter two cornerstones of this humble franchise -- have to go out like this. If you're an Astros fan, you have no right to be pissed at Brad Lidge. I'm not even second guessing Garner's decision to pull Backe after 100 pitches and throw Lidge (now 0-3 in the 2005 postseason) into the bonfire, because the 'Stros got killed by their Achilles heel: too little depth on the bench and bullpen.

I'd like to say that I predicted this from the onset; the late-season White Sox slide left a few doubts about momentum in the playoffs, but they destroyed the Red Sox and Angels. None of the starters pitched a bad game in the postseason. And after that, there shouldn't have been any doubt as to who the World Champs were. And yet, all of the ESPN braintrust either picked the Astros or (in the case of wunderkinds Neyer and Gammons) the Sox in six or seven. Even the poll on ESPN currently favors the Astros as winners. I guess it's hard finding someone to identify with on a team with 2/5 of a Yankees rotation and one of the most hated men in baseball (catcher AJ Pierzinski). Big Frank? Nah. Paul Konerko? For the week or so before he hits free agency, yeah. Ultra-humble MVP Jermaine Dye? Uhhh....

Oh wait, here's the true MVP: Ozzie Guillen. The only thing more fun than watching Barbara Bush repeatedly making the O-face when the camera panned on her in the stands was seeing Guillen writhe and contort and -- ultimately errupt into paroxysms of joy -- in one nail-biter of a contest. Fox didn't even know how to market this, with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver reading off the neighborhoods on Chicago's South Side that support the Sox (Hyde Park? Not) and zero mention of Nellie Fox during the post-game highlight reel. Here's to the 2005 World Champion White Sox: one of the most dominant postseasons on record and still, regrettably, nobody's team.

Dewey Defeats Truman



You're a Red Sox fan, and I pity you. Boomer got spanked and the blood on Curt Schilling's sock formed the shape of three straight losses. This is the postseason, where excellence is rewarded and dynasties are formed and shattered. There's isn't a lot of luck, Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins, be damned. Now it's my turn to gloat. The Red Sux faithful have a World Series ring to brag about and a giant payroll to reconcile for next year and beyond. This one is for the Chi-town massive. Imagine: the White Sox spent an entire season trying to find a closer, Takatsu and Hermanson tanked, and one Bobby Jenks suddenly materialized to nail the door shut on two postseason victories. Is he for real? Who cares? Look at Adrian Hernandez dropping a load in his pants in the picture -- it doesn't matter! While the remnants of Hurricane Rita pummel the Eastern Seabord, it's all clear skies in the Windy City. Want a reminder of how bad the White Sox need this? Ok, now slap on the wraparound shades and prepare to be blinded.

Carpenter's in, let the games begin

Boo.
Boo yaa!
No duh.

I walked into a job interview this afternoon and saw a young girl at the receptionist's desk, sniffling. She was wearing a Red Sox cap. Then I looked up at the Plasma screen above her head and watched the White Sox pound it out in a 4-run 6th inning. Wow. Coulda, woulda, shoulda been there -- here's to hoping Chi-town's finest didn't blow through all their heavy ammo in the first game.

The St. Louis game was -- as everyone predicted -- a dud-o. Watch the Cards coast on auto-pilot through the series with Carpenter, Mulder and Morris on the mound serving up tasty treats and the St. Louis playing leapfrog with the meatiest part of their batting order. C'mon, the Padres are pushing Pedro Astacio out on the mound for Game 2. Seriously, that shit will not fly when the NL's best team meets the NL's most dangerous team. I may just skip this series and tune in later to soak in the greatness that is the Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt rotation. Jayson Stark predicts Houston goes all the way.

Gimme an Astros-White Sox series for Hanukkah, yo.

Hair Club for Men

Season's almost over and Chris Carpenter has been clearing room for the Cy Young award on his mantle for months. I don't buy the argument -- as the Washington Post recently devoted several column inches to -- that Dontrelle Willis and Roger Clemens deserve more than passing consideration. The former has shown flashes of mortality this season; the latter's low win total is too big of a strike -- I just can't see someone collecting hardware with 13 or so wins. Besides, how great has Andy Pettite been down the stretch? What about Chad Cordero, who's been the backbone of the Nationals' inagural season?

Bill James loves thinking about this stuff, too, apparently: ESPN has been hosting a Cy Young Predictor on its site and it's all very fascinating. it's not a slam-dunk metric by any strecth (I'll explain in a second -- mostly because the voting committee has prejudices that don't necessarily match up with the data), but it does a really good job of parsing out who's been particularly valuable to their teams, etc. Here's the formula:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

"VB" is defined as "Victory Bonus," pro-rated and awarded for leading your team to a division championship. [Chris Carpenter scores well here]

The math works out well. Not sure why blown saves didn't have a statistical value, but I suppose the idea here is that loses are weighted heavily enough and it's not fair to charge something twice. Cincinnati's de facto closer David Weathers (7-3, 13 svs, 3.59 era) comes back with a score of 84.7 -- not even close to the leader board. No odd anomalies on the board either, though the AL leaders are split down the middle with 5 closers (including Hudston Street!) and 5 starters.

Bill James's tool suggests the following as the 10 most likely candidates for a 2004 Cy Young in the AL:

1 Johan Santana, Min 203.8 34 34 228.0 66 265 0 1 20-6 2.61 12
2 Mariano Rivera, NYY 196.3 74 0 78.2 17 66 53 0 4-2 1.94 12
3 Curt Schilling, Bos 174.5 32 32 226.2 82 203 0 0 21-6 3.26 0
4 Francisco Cordero, Tex 161.5 67 0 71.2 17 79 49 0 3-4 2.13 0
5 Joe Nathan, Min 158.4 73 0 72.1 13 89 44 0 1-2 1.62 12
6 Keith Foulke, Bos 136.7 72 0 83.0 20 79 32 0 5-3 2.17 0
7 Pedro Martinez, NYM 124.5 33 33 217.0 94 227 0 1 16-9 3.90 0
8 Mark Buehrle, CWS 120.9 35 35 245.1 106 165 0 1 16-10 3.89 0
9 Jake Westbrook, Cle 115.1 33 30 215.2 81 116 0 1 14-9 3.38 0
10 Troy Percival, Det 114.5 52 0 49.2 16 33 33 0 2-3 2.90 12

And here's how that years voting actually went:

1 Johan Santana MIN 28 140 140 1.00 | 20-6 228 2.61 0.92 265
2 Curt Schilling BOS 0 82 140 0.59 | 21-6 227 3.26 1.06 203
3 Mariano Rivera NYY 0 27 140 0.19 | 4-2 79 1.94 1.08 66 53
4 Pedro Martinez BOS 0 1 140 0.01 | 16-9 217 3.90 1.17 227
4 Joe Nathan MIN 0 1 140 0.01 | 1-2 72 1.62 0.98 89 44
4 F. Rodriguez ANA 0 1 140 0.01 | 4-1 84 1.82 1.00 123 12

Think the voting committee has a boner for Win-Loss records? For sure. So while Mariano Rivera's at the top of the Cy Young Predictor list again this year, there's no way that Bartolo Colon (currently 19-7) doesn't collect. Incidentally, the best pitcher in the AL is still Johan Santana...but, once again, the record (13-7) doesn't help.

We Thank You For Your Support

So long, Lloyd McClendon. More ruminations here and here. Bench coach Pete Mackanin is filling the skipper's shoes on an interim basis until the end of the season, when a bigger name -- probably one associated with the area like Ken Macha or Art Howe -- will be courted to manage the redheaded stepchild of the NL East. Please let it be Ken Macha. I have the utmost respect for what Lloyd McClendon did with the Pirates -- I even sponsor his Baseball Reference page as a tribute. I don't think he made the best of a bad situation -- I constantly questioned his abaility to fill out a line-up card and he toyed endlessly with the batting order to no real, discernable effect. McClendon did help to develop a really solid nucleus of talent, but failed as a motivator (if you discount those epic turf wars with the St. Louis coaching staff).

Still, dude stole more bases as a manager than a player. I've got to tip my hat. And let's examine the records, ok? McClendon goes out the door with a .430 win percentage (336-446). His predecessor, Gene Lamont, compiled a .456 record (295-352) in four seasons. And during Jim Leyland's dark years with the Pirates ('93-'96), he compiled a .445 win percentage. This tells me that: a) Lamont was underrated (check his record as White Sox manager first if you want to disagree), b) no amount of resourcefulness or cleverness will help a manager to win if the talent isn't in place and c) the next guy is going to have as hard of a time if ownership still wants to pinch pennies. Rest easy, Lloyd, you are not to blame. We all good now, right?

Confidential to Sean: I've gone 100 posts with McClendon in the driver's seat. I'll go 100 more before the Bucs put together a respectable season. Maybe I'll think about changing the blog's name then.

Brother, can you spare a dime?

A movement is breweing over at Fire Dusty Baker, where they're calling for the Cubs manager's toothpick-munching wristband-wearing butt to get shipped right out of town. I'm all about it. I really feel like Dusty Baker is the worst thing to happen to the Cubs since Ryne Sandberg's first retirement. He doesn't agree, of course, and was quoted in the Sun-Times as saying "I still look at six or seven more years. There are things I need and want to accomplish. I'm still here. I plan on being here." Oh god, I hope not.

Baker's an ok tactician, in terms of putting a competitive squad on the field, but I wonder if he's really able to make the most of what he's got when the Cubs are currently 5 games under .500 on the season. Yes, injuries to Wood and Prior and Nomar killed some of the buzz. But St. Louis has Walker, Rolen and Sanders out of the line-up (and lost Isringhausen for half of the season) and is still in cruise control. Atlanta? Worst outfield in MLB until Cox ditched the old-timers in favor of an all-rookie LF-CF-RF combo. The Braves still have the goods.

That's the rub. Baker is notoriously terrible dealing with youg players. Just awful. Any success through the minor league pipeline should be attributed entirely to Jim Hendry and Andy McPhail. Where's Corey Patterson? What happened to Matt Murton and Jason Dubois? Will Zambrano recover from over-use and abuse? Will Felix Pie ever see a Cubs uniform? I like a little bit of flash and arrogance. It gets the fans riled up, and Tony LaRussa is the master of this. But have you ever seen a worse press conference interview than Dusty Baker? It's like a giant homework assignment where points are assigned by not answering the questions posed by the reporters. Boo.

Pride of the Yankees

Just got back from New York, where my gracious hosts Duncan and Molly helped me to continue my personal winning streak of seeing single games at different ballparks this season (White Sox-Pittsburgh-Washington-Philly) with a trip to see the Yankees' Single A club on Staten Island. I was hoping for a long-awaited visit to Shea Stadium, but then again, I'd never seen a minor league baseball game before last week. It was pretty great. The park is one of those new-school old-school constructions, with a lovely view of the waterfront and Ellis Island and the Manhattan skyline.

The team's so popular it has three mascots and an unofficial fourth -- some obese guy named King Henry who roams the stands with a crown and a bat-and-ball scepter. The official mascot of the Staten Island Yankees is Scooter the Holy Cow, a freckled, halo-wearing cow. He also has two female bovine acolytes. I know this is in tribute to Yanks great/sportscaster extrordinaire Phil Rizzuto, but I wonder how long the fun will last in light of MLB handing down the longest milk-related suspension ever. Also, the team store sells Yankees yarmulkes. That kinda rules.

That Championship Season

Right now, Oakland and Houston are running at full court press. Both teams' records rested right around the .500 mark earlier this month, but after several months of win-lose-win-lose leapfrogging, the As and the 'Stros have gone 9-1 in their last ten games. This is what we expect from these franchises, both of which underperformed at the start of the season -- Billy Beane and Ken Macha love the underdog status and Phil Garner can't resist a good fight.

Head over to the NL East and the Nationals just can't keep it together. You may recall the Expos late-season identity crisis and attendant implosion after acquiring Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd a few years back. That's what's going on in Washington now as momentum has drained and Omar Minaya and Frank Robinson attempt to keep the ship from sinking with some spare parts. Nothing against Preston Wilson, Ryan Drese, Junior Spivey et al, but any team where Vinny Castilla and turdbox Cristian Guzman have soaked up that much playing time is bound to fail. These moves should have come a month or two into the season. It might be strange to talk about a team that's currently 55-48 in these terms, but a 2-8 record in the last 10 games speaks for itself. Everything Washington does, Atlanta does better.

Still, the worst best team in the majors right now is the Padres -- a drubbing last night at the hands of the Reds pushed the Pads' record to under .500. The Padres are the first team to lead their division with a losing record this late in the season since 1994. 18 teams in baseball have a superior record. And this team is 18-33 since June 1st. How do you keep losing like that and remain at the top of your division? The whole NL West is genuinely terrible; AZ, LA, SF and Colorado aren't putting up a threat. The dominance of St. Louis at the White Sox might play a role in skewing the standings, but the Padres really can't win outside of Petco. Right now, they can't win at all -- they'd have better odds of deciding the outcome of a game with a coin toss.